Winter Green

Greening hill at Ahmanson Ranch -- now Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve.

It’s about time — all the rain in Southern California is finally turning our hills green! Last year the hills of East Las Virgenes Canyon were sun bleached and rain starved.

According to preliminary NWS data, Downtown Los Angeles (USC) recorded measurable rain on each day from January 21 to January 28, 2008. Based on this NWS ranking for 1921-2006, this puts this eight day period in the top six of the station’s wettest streaks from 1921-2007.

So far this water year Downtown Los Angeles has recorded 11.73 inches of rain, which is 4.77 inches above normal. Last year on this date Los Angeles had recorded only 1.5 inches of rain. Even if Los Angeles were to receive no rain through the entire month of February (not likely), we would still go into the month of March ahead of normal.

The photograph is from a muddy run at Ahmanson Ranch — now Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve.

Boney Mountain Half Marathon – January 2008

Every event has its own personality and character. The XTERRA Boney Mountain Half Marathon is a trail running classic, with superb single track trails, fantastic views, grueling climbs, and fast, fast downhills. The longer climbs are on the single track sections of the course, and the descents generally on roads or old road beds. This results in a challenging course with 2600′ of elevation gain/loss, that — for the fleet-footed — can be very fast.

There are two significant climbs. The big one starts in earnest around mile 6.8 on the Old Boney Trail. This is a little less than a mile past the Danielson aid station. From the low point on the course (295′) in Big Sycamore Canyon at mile 5.5 to the high point of the course (1820′) at mile 9.75, there is a gain of about 1700′ and loss of about 175′ in elevation.

The Old Boney climb is tough, no doubt. But you have to be careful not to overlook the nearly 700′ of climb (and a little downhill) between mile 1.8 and mile 4. Early in the race, full of energy and charged with endorphins and adrenaline, it’s easy to push this section too hard. Runners tend to be more tightly grouped, and a dynamic develops that pushes the pace.

I managed to avoid that trap, and other than slipping at the first creek crossing and almost diving for mud snails, my race went reasonably well. The group of runners I tended to be around were upbeat and experienced, and everyone seemed to be enjoying the day. The weather was about as good as it gets for a race — cool and clear and without much wind. The trail was still damp from heavy rain earlier in the month, but there was almost no mud.

I took a water bottle and 3 GUs and skipped most of the aid stations. In my case I think this saved time, and I stayed better hydrated than if I had run without a bottle.

This year’s overall winner, Jonathan Toker, flew through the course in 1:36:30, averaging 7:22 minute miles! The overall Women’s winner was Julie Jakoboski with a time of 1:54:05. Full results can be found on the Boney Mountain Trail Run web page. Many thanks to the crew at Generic Events, and all of the race volunteers, for a great race!

Here’s a Google Earth image and an interactive 3D terrain view of a GPS trace of the Boney Mountain Half Marathon course.

Sobering note: In 2006 Sal Bautista ran the course in 1:31:11, averaging 6:58 minute miles!

Rainy Days on Rocky Peak Road

Stormy view of Simi Valley, California, from Rocky Peak Road.

Ran Rocky Peak road both days last weekend. Saturday’s outing was a 7.3 mile rainy day run out to the Chumash Trail junction and back. Sunday’s was a little longer, about 9.3 miles — past the Chumash Trail junction to the highpoint on the road sometimes referred to as “the fossils.”

The photograph of Simi Valley was taken on Sunday afternoon, just after turning around to head back. The wind was blowing in fitful gusts, and a gray wall of rain loomed to the west. It wasn’t raining yet, but the trailhead at Santa Susana Pass was about 50 minutes away, and there was a feeling things were going to get very wet, very soon.

Over the weekend the west coast was slammed by a series of storms that increased the water year rainfall total at Downtown Los Angeles to an inch above normal and the Sierra snow pack from 60% of normal to over 100%.

So far this rain season, Southern California has dodged a La Nina bullet. This AHPS Precipitation Analysis for the water year indicates much of the area has received near normal to above normal precipitation.

Will Southern California rainfall remain near normal? The Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook for Jan-Feb-Mar (issued Dec. 20), the ERSL/PSD Nov-Mar La Nina precipitation composite, and most other longer range forecast tools say no.

On the other hand… the base state of the atmospheric circulation remains more or less what it has been the past several months, so it doesn’t seem unreasonable to suggest that our pattern of near normal rainfall might continue.

The current NWS 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks project below normal for Southern California, but there are some hints that a system with a lower latitude track could affect the area near the end of the 14 day period. We’ll see!

Note: The ESRL/PSD Composite ENSO plots page was updated yesterday to correct an issue that resulted in the wrong set of years being used for its Winter La Nina composites. As a result the La Nina composite precipitation map in this post is drier in coastal Southern California than in the map originally published in the post Southern California 2007-2008 Winter Precipitation Outlook.