When I woke to the rumble of thunder, rain pounding the roof, and wind roaring in the trees, I wondered if a planned run of the Boney Mountain Half Marathon course with John Dale was going to turn into an epic. Radar and satellite imagery showed subtropical moisture streaming in from the southwest, producing bands of showers and thunderstorms. Things don't always look as bad at the trailhead as they do on weather radar, so I grabbed my gear and headed for Wendy Drive.

Downtown Los Angeles (USC) happened to be under the right cloud yesterday, and recorded 0.02 inch of rain. There's a continuing chance of showers in Southern California through the weekend. The area could use some rain. The last storm to produce more than a couple tenths of inch of rain at Downtown Los Angeles was back on February 24, 2008 -- more than eight months ago.

Last year, California's rain season might have been scripted by Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Lowland rain totals and the Sierra snowpack were well above normal through the end of February, and then the spigot was turned off. The storm track shifted north, and California had its driest March to May on record. (The March 29, 2008 post in Ed Berry's Atmospheric Insights blog describes the events that may have led to and maintained this shift.)

Which rain season personality will surface this Winter? Earlier this year the equatorial Pacific tried to transition to El Nino, but the atmosphere didn't cooperate. As measured by the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), the ENSO state has returned to the weak La Nina threshold. And as measured by the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO), an uncooperative atmosphere has continued to cycle through a La Nina base state.

This suggests a winter precipitation outlook with a La Nina flavor -- similar to last year. This precipitation map, generated by the ESRL-PSD Composite ENSO plots page, shows the mean November-March precipitation for the U.S. during 9 La Niña events from 1948 to the present. The average La Niña rainfall indicated for coastal Southern California is in the 7.0-10.5 inch range. Last season's November-March rainfall in Downtown Los Angeles was about 12 inches.

Here's the current Nov-Dec-Jan precipitation outlook issued October 16 by the Climate Prediction Center. The "EC" means an equal chance of below normal, near normal, or above normal precipitation. The IRI Multi Model Seasonal Forecast for Nov-Dec-Jan is similar. We'll see what we get!

My run to "Fossil Point" on Rocky Peak road, and side trip to Rocky Peak, was not the appalling experience I've come to expect when investigating a wildland area that has been overrun by a Southern California brush fire. Much of the chaparral along the fire road was not burned. Here are a few photos:

View southeast toward Porter Ranch from the summit of Rocky Peak (larger image).

View north toward Rocky Peak where the trail levels out, about 1.4 miles from the trailhead.

Burned area near viewpoint of Simi Valley about 2.3 miles from the trailhead.

View north from the summit of Rocky Peak. Rocky Peak fire road is on the far left, and the Johnson trail is on the right.

Unburned area along Rocky Peak fire road about 2.8 miles from the trailhead. Rocky Peak is the peak on the left.

False color image of slopes on the southwest side of Blind Canyon. The image has been modified to emphasize burned and unburned areas.

Some related posts: Chumash Trail - Sesnon & Simi Fires, San Fernando Valley from Rocky Peak

This weather worn sandstone boulder is a familiar landmark to those who do the Chumash Trail. It's a little less than a mile up the trail, and is at the point where the trail turns east and continues its climb along a cobble strewn divide. The chaparral here and elsewhere along the Chumash Trail was burned last week by the western flank of the Sesnon fire.

From the Boney Mountain loop a couple of weeks ago.

The scat appeared to be a day or two old, and was much bigger than a coyote's. It was full of fur and could only be from one animal -- a mountain lion. The spot had been used before, and it probably wasn't a coincidence that this was one of the few points along the trail with a good view and nearby cover. I looked into the brush and wondered if unseen eyes looked back.

It's fun to link together several trails into a loop, and it's even more fun when the trails are single-track, or at least have a single-track flavor. The Boney Mountain - Big Sycamore Canyon circuit links together segments of more than ten trails and roads in Rancho Sierra Vista/Satwiwa and Pt. Mugu State Park. The route is characterized by airy ridges, steep climbs, wide-ranging views, towering rock formations, and one of the best downhill running segments in the Santa Monica Mountains. Today's run expanded the loop, adding even more single-track trail -- and elevation gain.

From Sunday's run to Mt. Abel and back from Mt. Pinos in Los Padres National Forest.

Most of the trail between Mt. Pinos and Mt. Abel is in old growth pine and fir. One exception is this area of downed trees near the Cerro Noroeste road. The brushy plant with yellow flowers is rabbitbrush (probably Chrysothamnus viscidiflorus).

From today's run to Mt. Abel and back from Mt. Pinos on the Vincent Tumamait Trail in Los Padres National Forest.

The afternoon was hot, and the hill was not easy. I plodded up the rutted dirt road, watching my footfalls, and glancing upward from time to time. It was one of those days when hills grow long and steep, and sweat stings your eyes.

Part way up the grade, I caught a glimpse of two deer crossing the road. I didn't get a good look, but thought it might be another buck and doe, like the pair I recently encountered in Topanga State Park. I stopped running, pulled out my camera, and walked slowly up to the point where a game trail left the road.

I was expecting the pair to have dissolved into the brush, but apparently they had not seen me. They were about halfway up a rounded hill, backlit by the sun, and partially hidden by dried grasses and mustard stalks. The buck's head was down, and the doe's ears fluttered nervously to and fro.

Suddenly the buck's head shot up. As I watched, the animal's silhouette grew impossibly tall. His thick neck extended from heavily muscled shoulders, projecting an iconic image of dominance that was amplified by his formidable, multi-tined antlers.

Awestruck, I snapped what photos I could, and then turned and began to slowly jog up the road. Periodically I would stop and turn, and see if the deer were still in sight.  As I crested the climb, I could just make out the pair on the top of the now distant knoll.

Tree poppy (Dendromecon rigida) on Temescal Ridge Fire Road, on the way to the Hub in Topanga State Park.

From a run in March of the Will Rogers - Temescal Loop in the Santa Monica Mountains.

A sib of the ultralight SpeedCross 2, the Salomon SpeedComp trail running shoe trades the "snow and mud rated" lug sole of the SpeedCross 2 for a high traction tread reminiscent of a low profile, high performance tire. The result is a fast, lightweight shoe that should perform well on most trails and in a variety of conditions.

Mine arrived yesterday and I took them out for a 7 mile spin at Ahmanson Ranch. There were no surprises -- the SpeedComp ran very similar to the SpeedCross 2, with good shock absorption and cushioning for such a lightweight shoe.

In addition to the outsole tread, there are a few other differences in design. The toe cap of the SpeedComp extends further back along the welt, and the sole wraps up over the sides of the cap, providing additional protection on rocky trails. A heel pull-tab has also been added.

My pair of SpeedComps (US 9.0) weighed in at a light 22.6 oz.

Update 09/21/08. Did the 14 mile Bulldog Loop in the SpeedComps today. This course is mostly ungroomed dirt road, but there is also some rocky single track, a section on exposed sandstone, and even a little pavement. The SpeedComp was comfortable, nimble, and it's traction on the rocky sections was impressive.

Related post: Salomon SpeedCross 2 & adidas Response Trail 14