Ran Rocky Peak road both days last weekend. Saturday's outing was a 7.3 mile rainy day run out to the Chumash Trail junction and back. Sunday's was a little longer, about 9.3 miles -- past the Chumash Trail junction to the highpoint on the road sometimes referred to as "the fossils."

The photograph of Simi Valley was taken on Sunday afternoon, just after turning around to head back. The wind was blowing in fitful gusts, and a gray wall of rain loomed to the west. It wasn't raining yet, but the trailhead at Santa Susana Pass was about 50 minutes away, and there was a feeling things were going to get very wet, very soon.

Over the weekend the west coast was slammed by a series of storms that increased the water year rainfall total at Downtown Los Angeles to an inch above normal and the Sierra snow pack from 60% of normal to over 100%.

So far this rain season, Southern California has dodged a La Nina bullet. This AHPS Precipitation Analysis for the water year indicates much of the area has received near normal to above normal precipitation.

Will Southern California rainfall remain near normal? The Climate Prediction Center's precipitation outlook for Jan-Feb-Mar (issued Dec. 20), the ERSL/PSD Nov-Mar La Nina precipitation composite, and most other longer range forecast tools say no.

On the other hand... the base state of the atmospheric circulation remains more or less what it has been the past several months, so it doesn't seem unreasonable to suggest that our pattern of near normal rainfall might continue.

The current NWS 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks project below normal for Southern California, but there are some hints that a system with a lower latitude track could affect the area near the end of the 14 day period. We'll see!

Note: The ESRL/PSD Composite ENSO plots page was updated yesterday to correct an issue that resulted in the wrong set of years being used for its Winter La Nina composites. As a result the La Nina composite precipitation map in this post is drier in coastal Southern California than in the map originally published in the post Southern California 2007-2008 Winter Precipitation Outlook.

Fog along Malibu Creek in Malibu Creek State Park. Saddle Peak is in the distance, with the San Gabriel Mountains beyond.

Taken from the Bulldog fire road on last Sunday's Bulldog Loop.

Quiet and cold, the fog enveloped the sycamore trees along the creek and wrapped my thoughts and footfalls in a chilling shroud. I had just started the Bulldog loop and was running along a frosty road in Tapia Park. Suddenly there was a rustle and a blur of brown. Two deer darted in opposite directions. One ran toward the creek, stopping about 50 yards away. The other crossed the road in front of me, stopped at its margin, and from a distance of about 15 feet, calmly watched me run past.

Wow, it was windy! I was on an exposed ridge between Tri-Peaks and Big Dome, getting pushed around by a unrelenting offshore wind, trying to keep my footing, and take a few photos. About the time I was traversing the ridge, Laguna Peak -- the peak in the photograph with all the communications equipment on its summit-- recorded a gust of 67 mph.

But this is a mere breeze by Laguna Peak standards. A communication facility operated by the U.S. Navy, the weather station has recorded hurricane force winds on numerous occasions. Several of the wind events listed in the NWS document A History of Significant Weather Events in Southern California reference Laguna Peak. In March of 1991 a gust of 125 mph was recorded at the peak.

Update 12/25/07. Merry Christmas! This morning, about 6:15, Laguna Peak recorded a wind gust of 91.8 mph and several gusts in excess of 85 mph. Between 10:00 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. several gusts over 90 mph were recorded, including one measured at 91.9 mph.

La Jolla Valley is the small valley just below Laguna Peak. Isolated and scenic, it is a "must do" hike or run that can be accessed from the Ray Miller trailhead on PCH, or from Big Sycamore Canyon.

The peak on the left in this wider 16:9 format view is Mugu Peak. Its summit overlooks Pt. Mugu and is a relatively short side trip from the Mugu Trail.

Offshore, two of the Channel Islands can be seen -- Anacapa (left) and Santa Cruz.

From a late afternoon trail run along Las Virgenes Creek in late November 2007.

View northwest to the Ventura Mountains from the Chumash Trail. The highest peak on the skyline is Hines Peak (6716'), about 28 miles distant. Here's a larger version of the 16:9 format image. Note the hawk soaring high above the terrain.

I run the Chumash Trail frequently, but had not seen the bulldozed track on the steep slope near the start of the trail. The trail hasn't been re-routed. Apparently on the 13th a 4WD truck that was part of a fire department response to a cycling accident got stuck, and a bulldozer was called in to extricate the vehicle. I've been told the Park District and Mountains Conservancy are considering next steps.

I liked last weekend's run so much that this morning I returned to the Wendy Drive trailhead on Potrero Road and was now chugging up the Danielson-Old Boney trail, planning to do another circuit that would eventually take me back down into Big Sycamore Canyon.

Those of us in the northern hemisphere that enjoy afternoon daylight are celebrating the passing of the dank days of Autumn when sunset occurs the earliest in the day. Depending on your location, the amount of afternoon daylight may already be increasing -- be it ever so modest.

According to the Astronomical Applications Dept. of the U. S. Naval Observatory, in Los Angeles that day is today, December 11, when the sunset shifts from 4:44 p.m. to 4:45 p.m.

The more northerly your latitude, the later the date. In Miami it was back on December 4, and in Seattle it will be on December 18. In Anchorage it won't be until December 20. Barrow, Alaska won't see a sunset (or sunrise) until January 23!

You can check your city's sunset times using the USNO Sun or Moon Rise/Set Table.

I was about a mile from the Wendy Dr. trailhead on Potrero Rd. in Newbury Park. A cold wind ruffled the chaparral, and to the north snow could be seen on McDonald Peak (6870') and other peaks of the Ventura mountains. I was nearing the top of a rounded ridge in Rancho Sierra Vista/Satwiwa, and in a few minutes would be descending the sun-warmed Old Boney Trail into the upper reaches of Big Sycamore Canyon.

When I see crystals of hoar frost sparkle in the Winter sun it triggers a child-like awe. On Sunday's Condor Peak Trail Run, several sections of trail glittered as we ran into a low morning sun. On the cold east face of Fox Mountain, a fine, needle-like frost coated the edges and surfaces of leaves and twigs that had collected in pockets on the steep slope.

Digitally magnifying a small section of a 10 Mp image revealed that the frost is comprised of  hollow columns, and further magnification shows that the columns are hexagonal, with lengthwise facets.

The temp was in the 30's and it took a couple of minutes for my car's engine to warm enough to thaw the coating of ice on the windshield. I was headed for a run in the San Gabriel Mountains and was wondering how cold it might be.

Racing the sun,
Waiting for rain,
Listening to a meadowlark sing.

From a run at Ahmanson Ranch -- now Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve. Here's a larger view of the full 16:9 frame.

For an update on this Winter's austere outlook for rain, see my November 29 Weathernotes.