Due to fire concerns, Los Padres, Angeles, Cleveland and San Bernardino National Forests remained closed this weekend, so I headed back up to Kernville to meet some friends and run the Whiskey Flat Trail -- a sizzling trail in the summertime that has been on my running to-do list for years.

One of the most scenic and isolated areas of Upper Las Virgenes Canyon is traversed by a single track trail that links the Upper Las Virgenes Canyon fire road, northwest of Bell Canyon, to the northern extension of the Cheeseboro Ridge power line service road. The trail, shown on this Park Service map, follows an old road bed through improbable terrain.

I like to do the trail east to west. Once the power line service road is reached the most straightforward option is to turn left, and follow the road up and over the ridge and down to the 4-way junction east of Shepherds Flat. Another option is to turn right on the road and follow it a short distance to another single track that branches left from the road and leads to the Albertson Mtwy. This (dirt) road leads west to a signed intersection near China Flat. From here it is possible to work back to Shepherds Flat at the the top of Cheeseboro.

Many variations are possible, but starting at the Victory Trailhead of Upper Las Virgenes Open Space Preserve, and following the course indicated in this Google Earth image, the first route (up and over the ridge) is about 17.5 miles long. According to my GPS, an alternate route through China Flat is about 19.25 miles long. Both are interesting and challenging trail runs.

One of many excellent hikes/runs in the Southern Sierra, the River Trail starts at Johnsondale Bridge -- about 19 miles north of Kernville, California on highway Mountain 99 -- and follows the river north 4 miles to Four Mile rapid. Here the trail turns east and works up to the Rincon Trail.

This section of the Kern River is part of the beautiful and challenging Forks of the Kern class V whitewater run. Numerous class IV rapids and the class V rapids Carson Falls and Confusion are found on this reach. In the Spring and Summer expert kayakers and rafters may be seen maneuvering among the many boulders and drops. (A Forest Service permit is required to paddle the Forks.)

From a run at Sage Ranch. (A 16:9 format image.)

Listed by the California Native Plant Society as being rare, threatened, or endangered, Santa Susana tarweed (Hemizonia minthornii) can be found where sandstone outcrops of the Chatsworth formation occur, such as in the Santa Susana Pass area in the Simi Hills.

This photograph was taken on a run at Sage Ranch on October 1, 2007.

The numerous interconnecting roads and trails of the eastern Santa Monica Mountains can be combined to create trail runs ranging from a few miles to marathon length or more.

Maybe it's the result of record low rainfall, or the 2005 Topanga Fire, or a combination of the two -- there has been a dramatic increase in the amount of tumbleweed (Salsola tragus) along the dirt roads in Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve (formerly Ahmanson Ranch).

Like black mustard, and milk thistle, tumbleweed is an invasive plant. According to UC IPM Online tumbleweed is native to southeastern Russia and western Siberia and was first introduced into the United States (South Dakota) in 1873.

The photograph of the tumbleweed flower was taken on a run at Ahmanson Ranch on October 3, 2007.

Some related posts: Dealing With Drought, Milk Thistle Seed Heads, Curly Dock

Updated January 10, 2008. The ESRL-PSD Composite ENSO plots page was updated today to correct an issue that resulted in the wrong set of years being used for its Winter La Nina composites. As a result the La Nina composite precipitation map in this post has been updated.

Grasses sprouting as a result of our record setting September rainstorm have brushed our sun parched hills, fields, and woodlands with pleasing hints of green. Whether these areas will remain green depends on how much rain we receive this Fall and Winter.

According to the Climate Prediction Center's Weekly ENSO Update, issued October 1, La Niña conditions are present across the tropical Pacific and are likely to persist through early 2008. As a result, several longer range U.S. precipitation outlooks are similar to this Nov-Dec-Jan Precipitation Outlook, issued September 20 by the CPC.

The precipitation pattern projected for the western U.S. is typical of a La Niña, with an increased chance of higher than normal precipitation in the Pacific northwest and an increased chance of lower than normal precipitation in the southwest.

The September 20 CPC outlook indicates an "equal chance" of below normal, near normal, or above normal precipitation in the Los Angeles area. However, the La Niña has strengthened recently, so the next precipitation outlook may reflect a more pessimistic projection of Los Angeles area rainfall.

As mentioned above, the ESRL-PSD Composite ENSO plots page was updated today to correct an issue that resulted in the wrong set of years being used for its Winter La Nina composites. This updated precipitation map shows the mean Nov-Mar precipitation for the U.S. during 9 La Niña events from 1948 to the present. Note that the average La Niña rainfall indicated for coastal Southern California is in the 7.0-10.5 inch range, rather than the  10-15 inch range previously indicated in the ESRL-PSD graphic.

The two driest water years recorded in Los Angeles since 1877 have occurred in the last seven years. During the most recent, from Jul 2006 to June 2007, downtown Los Angeles (USC) measured only 3.21 inches of rain. In that context 10-15 inches sounds quite wet! We'll see.

The photograph of new grass sprouting amid oaks is from a run at Sage Ranch on October 1, 2007.

Los Angeles sometimes gets rain in September, but usually it is the result of tropical moisture from a dissipating hurricane, or perhaps the passage of the tail end of a weakening front. It is rare to see a low as cold, deep and energetic as the upper level low that deluged many areas of Los Angeles county Friday afternoon into Saturday.

Thunderstorms raked the San Fernando Valley Friday night, and several locations in and around the Valley recorded more than an inch of rain over the course of the storm. Los Angeles set a new rainfall record on Saturday, recording 0.40 inch of rain, and rainfall records were broken across the area.

In Southern California the first rain of the season often doesn't occur until October or November and is always savored. Especially this year, when Los Angeles has recorded only 3.21 inches of rain in the last 15 or 16 months, and a developing La Nina threatens to put the kibosh on Winter rain.

I celebrated the rain by doing an out and back run to "Fossil Point" on Rocky Peak fire road. Based on the size of the mud puddles on the dirt road, this unseasonable storm appeared to be wetter than any in last year's record dry rain season. Here's a panorama of the view northwest from the fire road to Oak Ridge, the Santa Susana Mountains and beyond.

Some related posts: San Fernando Valley from Rocky Peak, Rainy Morning on Rocky Peak Road.

Showy tarweed (Madia elegans ssp. densifolia) blooming along the Mokelumne River. The seeds of tarweed were an ingredient of pinole -- a food staple of several California native cultures made from ground seeds. The plant's common name refers to the sticky nature of the its foliage.

From a run on Saturday morning.

Study of a wall of the Electra Powerhouse on the Mokelumne River.

It's growth exhausted, this dessicated stalk of hummingbird sage (Salvia spathacea) is a relic of Southern California's 2005-2006 rain season. A robust member of the mint family, the flowering stalks typically grow to a height of 1-3 ft., but in this case the full stalk reached about 4 ft. The 2006-2007 rain season was too dry to produce flowering stalks in this area.

From a run at Sage Ranch Park on August 22, 2007.

Related post: Dealing with Drought