Updated January 10, 2008. The ESRL-PSD Composite ENSO plots page was updated today to correct an issue that resulted in the wrong set of years being used for its Winter La Nina composites. As a result the La Nina composite precipitation map in this post has been updated.

Grasses sprouting as a result of our record setting September rainstorm have brushed our sun parched hills, fields, and woodlands with pleasing hints of green. Whether these areas will remain green depends on how much rain we receive this Fall and Winter.

According to the Climate Prediction Center's Weekly ENSO Update, issued October 1, La Niña conditions are present across the tropical Pacific and are likely to persist through early 2008. As a result, several longer range U.S. precipitation outlooks are similar to this Nov-Dec-Jan Precipitation Outlook, issued September 20 by the CPC.

The precipitation pattern projected for the western U.S. is typical of a La Niña, with an increased chance of higher than normal precipitation in the Pacific northwest and an increased chance of lower than normal precipitation in the southwest.

The September 20 CPC outlook indicates an "equal chance" of below normal, near normal, or above normal precipitation in the Los Angeles area. However, the La Niña has strengthened recently, so the next precipitation outlook may reflect a more pessimistic projection of Los Angeles area rainfall.

As mentioned above, the ESRL-PSD Composite ENSO plots page was updated today to correct an issue that resulted in the wrong set of years being used for its Winter La Nina composites. This updated precipitation map shows the mean Nov-Mar precipitation for the U.S. during 9 La Niña events from 1948 to the present. Note that the average La Niña rainfall indicated for coastal Southern California is in the 7.0-10.5 inch range, rather than the  10-15 inch range previously indicated in the ESRL-PSD graphic.

The two driest water years recorded in Los Angeles since 1877 have occurred in the last seven years. During the most recent, from Jul 2006 to June 2007, downtown Los Angeles (USC) measured only 3.21 inches of rain. In that context 10-15 inches sounds quite wet! We'll see.

The photograph of new grass sprouting amid oaks is from a run at Sage Ranch on October 1, 2007.

Los Angeles sometimes gets rain in September, but usually it is the result of tropical moisture from a dissipating hurricane, or perhaps the passage of the tail end of a weakening front. It is rare to see a low as cold, deep and energetic as the upper level low that deluged many areas of Los Angeles county Friday afternoon into Saturday.

Thunderstorms raked the San Fernando Valley Friday night, and several locations in and around the Valley recorded more than an inch of rain over the course of the storm. Los Angeles set a new rainfall record on Saturday, recording 0.40 inch of rain, and rainfall records were broken across the area.

In Southern California the first rain of the season often doesn't occur until October or November and is always savored. Especially this year, when Los Angeles has recorded only 3.21 inches of rain in the last 15 or 16 months, and a developing La Nina threatens to put the kibosh on Winter rain.

I celebrated the rain by doing an out and back run to "Fossil Point" on Rocky Peak fire road. Based on the size of the mud puddles on the dirt road, this unseasonable storm appeared to be wetter than any in last year's record dry rain season. Here's a panorama of the view northwest from the fire road to Oak Ridge, the Santa Susana Mountains and beyond.

Some related posts: San Fernando Valley from Rocky Peak, Rainy Morning on Rocky Peak Road.

Showy tarweed (Madia elegans ssp. densifolia) blooming along the Mokelumne River. The seeds of tarweed were an ingredient of pinole -- a food staple of several California native cultures made from ground seeds. The plant's common name refers to the sticky nature of the its foliage.

From a run on Saturday morning.

Study of a wall of the Electra Powerhouse on the Mokelumne River.

It's growth exhausted, this dessicated stalk of hummingbird sage (Salvia spathacea) is a relic of Southern California's 2005-2006 rain season. A robust member of the mint family, the flowering stalks typically grow to a height of 1-3 ft., but in this case the full stalk reached about 4 ft. The 2006-2007 rain season was too dry to produce flowering stalks in this area.

From a run at Sage Ranch Park on August 22, 2007.

Related post: Dealing with Drought

View of the Kern River valley, upstream of Kernville, California, from a hilltop near Bull Run Creek.

View east from the Misha Mokwa trail over Ladyface and the San Fernando Valley to the San Gabriel Mountains.

The peaks of the Mt. Wilson area are those in the distance, rising above the marine layer. Mt. Baldy, about 75 miles distant, is the high peak, just left of the centerline of the photograph, in the haze beyond the Mt. Wilson ridgeline.

Related post: Balance Rock, Mt. Wilson Area Peaks From Twin Peaks

Update 7/26/08. There have been recent USB driver (4-28-08) and firmware (5-07-08) updates, and the PC software has been replaced (7-04-08), but the most significant change is that SportTracks now supports the GH615 via a plugin. Since I use SportTracks I have not looked closely at the new "g-Sports PC Utility" software, but it appears to be more functional than the original "PC Utility" software. Some significant quirks remain. When the GH615B is set to STATUTE(ft, mph) units, the elevation still displays in miles -- e.g. 1.702 miles instead of 8987 ft.

Update 9/10/07. Shortly after writing this post I learned that the GH-615B has been discontinued in the U.S. in favor of the GH-615M, which includes a heart rate monitor.

Chugging up Mt. Baden-Powell, I pushed various buttons on the GlobalSat GH615B, searching for the screen that displays elevation. I had seen it on a run during the week, and now I couldn't find it. Wait... What? My elevation is 1.702 MILES??

When my Forerunner 205 had to be returned to Garmin a second time, it seemed like a good time to see if there were any new GPS-based running watches I could use for tracing the routes of my trail runs. The description of the GH615B on the GlobalSat web site looked promising. Like the Forerunner 205/305 it had a watch-like design, and the specs said it also used the newer, more sensitive, SiRFstarIII GPS technology.

Despite an ongoing heat wave and excessive heat warnings, temps were surprisingly moderate for the 42nd running of the Mt. Baldy Run to the Top race. This year the men's overall winner was Eric Martin in a time of 1:10:04, and the women's overall winner was Brigid Freyne in a time of 1:30:41. For all of the results see the Run to the Top web site. Many thanks to the race organizers, volunteers, USFS, Mt Baldy Ski Lifts and the Mt. Baldy Fire Department for a great race!

Here are a few images from the race (Flash 8 required), a Google Earth image and Google Earth KMZ file (updated) of a GPS trace of the route.

Related post: Mt. Baldy Runner

The plan had been to do a 2-3 hour run from the Chula Vista parking lot west over Mt. Pinos into the Chumash Wilderness, but due to the Zaca Fire, the trail/road to the summit of Mt. Pinos, the Vincent Tummawait trail, and all of the Chumash Wilderness were closed.

Improvising the best we could, we linked together some cross-country ski trails, use trails, a fallen tree, and the Mt. Pinos road, and were able to get in a good trail run.

Update Friday, August 31, 2007. In a press release dated August 29, 2007, the Forest Service announced that some areas within Los Padres National Forest east of Highway 33 that were previously closed to public entry because of the Zaca Fire would be reopened on August 30.

For more information regarding the Zaca Fire and related closures, see the Los Padres National Forest web site.

Some related posts: Mt. Pinos - Mt. Abel Out & Back, Thunderstorm, Vincent Tumamait Trail

With little new growth this Spring and Summer, coyote paths at Ahmanson Ranch have become so well worn that several have recently been posted with "Restoration Area - Please Keep Out" signs. Whether the canny coyotes will choose to cooperate remains to be seen.

Note: Ahmanson Ranch was acquired as open space in part to protect several sensitive species and their habitats. Some (human) use trails have evolved and "Restoration Area - Please Keep Out" signs are a reminder that the area is a preserve.

From a recent run at Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve (formerly Ahmanson Ranch).

Related post: Trickster

 From a trail run at Sage Ranch Park earlier this year.