Weekend highs in California were down 30-40 degrees from the searing temps earlier in the week. After dealing with the heat, my jaw dropped when I read Sunday's NWS forecast for the Eastern Sierra:

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL ABOVE
9000 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 40 TO 52 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
AROUND 59 NEAR 8500 FEET. WEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.

Now that is great August weather forecast!

I couldn't get to the Sierra, but I could do a run in the Angeles High Country -- and I was willing to bet the upper level trough that was producing unsettled weather in the Sierra would also result in a cool, Autumn-like day in the San Gabriel Mountains.

And it did! Compared to my midweek runs, running up the Mt. Waterman trail was like going for a swim in a high mountain lake. Just spectacular!

Simi Valley and the Pacific Coast from Rocky Peak Road

What better way to recover from the Bulldog 50K than running Ahmanson and Rocky Peak on two of the hottest days of the year?

Yesterday, Pierce College in Woodland Hills hit a scorching 111°F, and then today 109°F. At the start of today's run it was still over 100°F on Rocky Peak, but extra (ice) water, and a bit of a breeze kept things mostly reasonable.

No matter the weather, you'll always see someone else on Rocky Peak!

Some related posts: Rocky Peak Rainstorm, Snow on Oat Mountain

Paintbrush on the Vincent Tumamait Trail

Thursday afternoon the temperature in Woodland Hills hit 107°F. Friday was 103°F, and Saturday 104°F. Weekdays I run in the afternoon, and after running in that heat, I needed to escape to cooler climes. One way to beat the broiling temps was to head for the high country.

There are several higher elevation areas within a couple hours drive of Los Angeles. My favorites are Mt. Baden-Powell (9399'), Mt. Baldy (10,064'), Mt. Pinos (8831'), Mt. San Jacinto (10,834') and San Gorgonio Mountain (11,499').

Today the choice was Mt. Pinos. It had been a few weeks since I'd run there, and the driving time to the Chula Vista parking lot on Mt. Pinos is about the same as that to Islip Saddle in the San Gabriels. Also, it's usually cooler running between Mt. Pinos and Mt. Abel, than between Islip Saddle and Mt. Baden-Powell.

It was a little breezy and chilly up on Mt. Pinos, Sawmill Mountain and Mt. Abel. What a change from during the week. At the start of the run the temperature was about 40-50 degrees cooler than my last run at Ahmanson Ranch.

I did an extended version of the usual 14.5 mile out and back course on the Vincent Tumamait Trail. This variation drops down to Lilly Camp (6600') on the North Fork Trail before continuing to Mt. Abel. The side trip adds about 6 miles and 1700' of gain. It was a bit warmer down at Lilly Meadow Camp, but the air conditioning kicked back in once I returned to the main trail.

Some related posts: Running Hot & Cold, Up & Down Mt. Baldy's South Ridge, Vincent Tumamait Trail, Autumn Trail Running on Mt. San Jacinto, San Gorgonio High Line 2009

Pacific Crest Trail Near Mt. Burnham, in the San Gabriel Mountains

At an elevation of 9000' the weather was sensational. Skies were partly cloudy, accentuating the terrain, and hinting of a thunderstorm later in the day. I was on the Pacific Crest Trail between Mt. Burnham and Mt. Baden-Powell, about 8 miles into a 18 mile run in the San Gabriel Mountains.

Remarkably, there was still a small patch of snow along the trail. According to seasonal summaries in Your Guide to Snowfall, the 2009-2010 season in Southern California was the best since the big Winter of 2004-2005. But it wasn't necessary to check the snow history to know the snowfall had been above average. All that was needed was to look around, and the mountains told the story.

The remnants of snow were only part of the tale. Broken and downed trees told of strong Winter winds, and the stalks of red snow plant of a cool Spring. Now springs flowed freely and once dry seeps were damp and green. Wildflowers bloomed in profusion. Squat bumblebees waddled from flower to flower, and hummingbirds darted from patch to patch of scarlet bugler.

It had been a good Winter. Sugar pines were heavy with pine cones, and new growth decorated the limbs of the white firs. The growth of tree seedlings in the Curve Fire burn area seemed to have accelerated, and the protracted process of forest replacement was underway.

Southern California's erratic weather demands that plants and trees be opportunistic. In time they have learned that an El Nino Winter is often followed by one that is dry, and La Nina looms.

Mt. Baldy fron the summit of Mt. Baden-Powell

Yesterday, Woodland Hills topped the 90° mark for the first time this year. But somebody forgot to tell the local mountains about the warmup. This morning, I was about a mile into an out and back trail run from Islip Saddle to Mt. Baden-Powell, and with the wind chill, it felt like the temp was in the 40's.

It was chilly in running shorts, and I debated pulling some warmer clothes from the pack. In addition to a short-sleeve shirt, I did have on a pair of pull-on long sleeves. For the moment that seemed to be enough. Rounding a corner, the trail leveled, and up ahead I could see a hiker headed my way. Based on the time, I figured he was descending from Little Jimmy Campground. We exchanged greetings, and as we passed, he commented, "you know there's a lot of snow on the trail."

This Spring the weather in California has been dominated by a series of cool troughs, slowing the snow melt and in some cases adding to it. It its May 27th Summary of Snow Water Content, California Cooperative Snow Surveys reported the statewide snowpack at nearly twice the normal amount for the date. Squaw Valley reopened for Memorial Day weekend; and with over 100 inches of snow since April 1, Mammoth Mountain plans to operate through July 4.

On the shaded, north facing slopes of Mt. Islip there was more snow than I'd seen since the Spring of 2005. It couldn't be avoided. However, the route was well-traveled, and where there was snow, dirt-covered steps eased the way. I had picked up a short length of downed fir, and it worked OK as a crude ice axe, or if you prefer, a stubby trekking pole. It enabled me to move a little faster, and had the added benefit of keeping my upslope hand out of the snow.

It didn't take long to reach Windy Gap (7588'), and soon I was working up the trail to the gap above Windy Gap. Here the trail winds through a ghost forest of old growth trees, burned in the 2002 Curve Fire. Recovery has been slow, and it was heartening to see a young Jeffrey pine in the midst of all the deadwood. It also gave me a sobering perspective of the time that was going to be required for the recovery of the forests decimated by the Station Fire.

The trail climbs up to the crest of the San Gabriels near peak 8426, about a mile east of Windy Gap. From here it more or less follows the prominent divide all the way to Mt. Baden-Powell (9,399'). It's the "more or less" part that's key in a snowy year. The shaded north side of the divide may be completely snowbound, while the crest and south side are snow free. The way the ridgeline is oriented, storm winds create deep bands of snow along and just north of the crest. In places the trail can be buried in several feet of snow.

On the east side of Mt. Hawkins I checked out a tree that had been struck by lightning, and then continued along the ridge. The wind was little more than a breeze now, and the temperature comfortable. I pulled off my running sleeves, and then followed the trail across the warm, south facing slopes of Throop Peak. Sometimes on the trail, and sometimes on the crest, I descended to a saddle and then climbed up and over Mt. Burnham (8997').

On the summit of Mt. Baden-Powell there was almost no wind. The sun was warm and the air clear. Across Vincent Gulch Mt. Baldy gleamed alpine white, its summit ridges still heavy with corniced snow. Many miles to the east, snow could also be seen on San Gorgonio Mountain, and Mt. San Jacinto. A Clark's nutcracker complained raucously from the top of a Lodgepole Pine, and I assured the bird that I would be leaving the summit soon.

Some related posts: San Gabriels High Five, Islip Saddle - Mt. Baden-Powell Out & Back

Eagle Rock From Eagle Springs Fire Road

Is it May or March? With all the blustery weather systems that have been moving through Southern California, it's been hard to tell.

Today I had planned to head back to the high country of the San Gabriels, but instead decided to take advantage of the spectacular weather and do a rambling 24 mile run in the Santa Monica Mountains.

It was a good choice. Early in the run growing mountains of silver-lined cumulus towered above the Hub, and a brisk wind tempted me to pull the sleeves from the pack. Wildflowers lined the trails, and the chaparral teemed with color, sound and scent. It was a long run kind of day.

Note: Later in the day I talked to a runner who had been at Lake Arrowhead early in the morning. He said it had been snowing down to 3000 ft! According to the NWS, record low temperatures for today were set at Lancaster (41°), San Luis Obispo (38°), and Sandberg (28°).

We've had some great running weather in Southern California this Spring, with more than our usual share of cool days and postcard skies. Remarkably, the highest temperature recorded at Downtown Los Angeles so far this year was in the final few days of Winter, when the temperature hit 88 on March 16.

The title photograph is from a recent run in the Simi Hills.

I heard a news report the other day that Southern California's rain season would end in two weeks. While Southern California typically receives the bulk of its precipitation in the months of November through April, the rain season doesn't turn off like a switch on May 1. There certainly can be significant rain in May, and even June.

The water year for Downtown Los Angeles (USC) is from July 1 to June 30 of the following year. So far, Downtown Los Angeles (USC) has recorded 16.17 inches of rain during the current water year. This is more than an inch above the 1971-2000 annual climate norm for Los Angeles of 15.14 inches.

Our Sunday-Monday storm put Downtown Los Angeles at 1.51 inches of rain for the month of April -- well above the climate normal of 0.83 inches. The normal amount of precipitation for May is 0.31 inches, and for June is 0.06 inches. But those are just averages. On occasion we receive much more than this, and sometimes much less. On the up side, according to NWS data, in April 1965 Los Angeles recorded a total of 6.02 inches of rain. In May 1921, 3.57 inches was measured; and in June 1999 0.98 inch was recorded.

Although the current El Niño has weakened, convection is still somewhat enhanced in a broad region of the equatorial Pacific, and the MEI, ONI, and GWO indicate the continued presence of El Niño. This could result in more active Spring weather than usual, and more opportunities for rain in Southern California.

At the moment, the next opportunity for some Southern California rain looks to be next week, around Tuesday or Wednesday. We'll see!

The title photo is from a run on the Chumash Trail at the end of March.

Because of their unusual "flying saucer" appearance, lens shaped lenticular clouds have long drawn attention. According to a research article in Weather, depictions of wave clouds appear in Gothic art from the 15th century.

Lenticular clouds typically form when wind flows into, and then up and over a mountain range, creating a series of "roller coaster" atmospheric waves downwind of the range. Lenticular clouds can (but don't always) form in the peaks of the waves, as a layer of air rides up a wave, and cools and condenses. The waves are called standing waves because the peaks and troughs can stay (more or less) in the same place for hours at a time.

The rising air on the windward side of a lee wave can be soared by gliders to high altitudes. According to the FAI, the current world absolute altitude record for gliders is 15,460 meters (50,722 ft.). This record was set by the late Steve Fossett in 2006, soaring a mountain wave in the Andes. Mountain wave soaring was pioneered on the east side of the Sierra, and several single place sailplane world altitude records have been set soaring the Sierra wave.

Lee waves also have a nefarious side. Rotors, breaking waves, and other phenomena associated with mountain waves can create extreme turbulence. A sailplane destroyed in early research on rotors was estimated to have experienced 16 g of acceleration. According to the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, "clear air turbulence associated with a mountain wave ripped apart a BOAC Boeing 707 while it flew near Mt. Fuji in Japan. In 1968, a Fairchild F-27B lost parts of its wings and empennage, and in 1992 a Douglas DC-8 lost an engine and wingtip in mountain wave encounters."

The wave clouds above were photographed northwest of Los Angeles during a trail run earlier this month. The wind forming the wave clouds appears to be from the north-northeast. The situation was peculiar because the wind at nearly all levels at that time was from the northwest. The tops of the wave clouds are being sheared by winds blowing from the northwest (left to right).

Here's an animated series of NRL satellite photos showing the waves pictured above, and the complex wind and wave pattern at the time of the photograph.

Pushed up and over Boney Mountain's two thousand foot western escarpment, Pacific winds condense into thick cloud along its jagged crest. At times breaking free of the mountain's grasp, patches of cloud drift eastward, creating a patchwork of sun and shadow on the steep slopes, and in the valley below.

In the distance, the Ventura Mountains gleam with a mix of snow and cloud, and below the fields of Satwiwa stand out vibrant and green. At my feet hundreds of purple shooting stars dance in the wind; and nearby yesterday's rain seeps and trickles from moss to lichen on the scraggy volcanic rock.

It is a remarkable morning, and an exceptional one to be doing the Boney Mountain north side loop. Here's a short HD video of some of the views along the way. (If the video doesn't play cleanly the first time through because of bandwidth issues, let it finish and then try playing it a second time.)

The weather has calmed in Southern California. Medium range models are forecasting a break of about a week in what has turned out to be a very busy rain season. Over the last 90 days a precipitation pattern typical of El Niño has emerged in the western U.S. This is reflected in rainfall total for Downtown Los Angeles (USC), which is now at 13.2 inches for the water year -- 4.78 inches above normal.

The dry weather could not have come at a better time for those affected, or threatened, by mudslides and debris flows. This small slump along a road at Ahmanson Ranch is indicative of the instability that can develop when soil becomes saturated. Had our recent wet pattern been more persistent, mudslides and debris flows might have been much more widespread and devastating.

There's snow in just about every mountain range of Southern California following last week's series of storms. This subdued sunset view is of the Simi Valley and the Topatopa Mountains.

From this evening's run in the Simi Hills.

Six days of rain had finally come to an end. Soaked hillsides steamed in the morning sun; but still in shadow, tussocks of grass along the dirt road wore a thick coat of frost. Running west on the main drag in Ahmanson Ranch, we were working our way over to Cheeseboro Canyon.

Whether the conditions were imperfect or perfect was a matter of perspective. Yes, it had been a little muddy and wet, but that was part of the experience, and part of the morning.

In some places droplets of water refracted and reflected tiny spectra of color, while in others flat plates of frost glittered in the sun. Running along a rejuvenated creek, the smell of wet earth mixed with the rich organic odors of old willow leaves and other vegetation.

Away from the trailhead there was not a hiker, runner, rider or mountain biker to be seen. Remarkably, even in Cheeseboro Canyon no one was on the trail.

Sometimes I'm asked,"What are you training for?" Being able to enjoy a run like today's is my reply.

Computer models and other tools continue to forecast a shift to an "El Nino like" upper flow pattern next week that could result in an extended period of wet weather in Southern California. I'll be updating Southern California Weather Notes on Wednesday with additional info.

The photograph of patterned altocumulus clouds is from this afternoon's trail run along the northern boundary of Ahmanson Ranch, near Los Angeles.

Following the little bit of wet weather we had at the end of the year, Southern California has been enjoying idyllic weather with highs in the 70's and 80's. Southland cities recorded the highest temperature in the continental U.S. several days this week. Tuesday San Diego recorded a high of 84 degrees, tying Kalaeloa, Hawaii for the warmest temperature in the nation.

The weather's been great for trail running -- and for the chaparral plants. Alternating periods of wet weather and warm weather have encouraged growth and flowering, and I've been seeing a number of rainy season wildflowers. In addition to the milkmaids in the photograph above, some of the early bloomers include nightshade, peony, shooting star, woolly blue curls, prickly phlox, chaparral mallow, rattlesnake weed, and several others.

Rainfall totals in Southern California this rain season to date have generally ranged from an inch or so above normal to an inch or so below (WRCC). As of yesterday, Downtown Los Angeles (USC) precipitation was 0.56 inch above the norm for the water year to date. Although January has been dry so far, it looks like we may see a shift to more seasonable -- and wetter -- weather around midweek next week.

The precipitation pattern we've seen on the West Coast so far this rain season has a bit of an El Nino flavor to it, and that pattern may become better defined in the coming weeks. Today's 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center indicate above average rainfall for Southern California. We'll see!

Shorts and short sleeves. Temperature 75 degrees.

From today's run from Kanan Rd. (Tunnel #1) to Tapia Park by way of Newton Canyon, upper Solstice Canyon, Castro Crest, Bulldog Motorway, Century Lake, and the Tapia Spur Trail.

Got caught in some showers this afternoon on Rocky Peak, returning from a rambling trail run from the San Fernando Valley over into Simi Valley.

This was one of those "not sure where I'm going" runs that unfolded as it progressed. It started near Chatsworth Reservoir at Chatsworth Oaks Park, worked over to Santa Susana State Historic Park, then up the Old Stagecoach Road. At the top of the old Stagecoach Road, I picked up the Upper Stagecoach Trail and followed that to Santa Susana Pass and the 118 Frwy. From there it was a short distance down the west side of Santa Susana Pass Rd. to the Lower Stagecoach Trail, which took me to Corriganville.

Once down in Simi Valley there are four trails that ascend to Rocky Peak road, and my return route. From the shortest to the longest, they are the Wildlife Corridor trail, Hummingbird Trail, Chumash Trail and the Marrland/Las Llajas trail. Not sure how long it would take to get back to the SFV, I finally decided on the Chumash Trail.

Running up the Chumash Trail, the wind picked up, the clouds began to lower and thicken, and the temperature dropped. Minutes after turning right onto Rocky Peak road the showers began, and it wasn't long before the sleeves came out of the pack.

The return trip, with a net elevation loss, went a little quicker than expected. Next time I'll have to give the Las Llajas option a try. That would extend the run from about 17 miles, to something over 20. The approximate elevation gain/loss on the 17 mile version was a little under 3000 ft.

Related post: Old Santa Susana Stage Road

Some outstanding evening runs this week. Did a FiveFingers run out at Ahmanson on Tuesday, and as sometimes happens this time of year, didn't make it back before dark. Was up on Lasky Mesa in the fading light, with endorphins at full flow. In a distant grove oaks I could hear a Great Horned Owl, and with each hoot-whoo it seemed the zeal of the day was turning to the tranquility of the night. The running was effortless and ethereal.

This evening's run was also superb. Over the course of the run, the skies had become increasingly gray and troubled, as a weak cold front approached the area. Climbing a long hill, the light was dank, and I had given up on the sun. But as I neared the crest of the hill, orange-red sunlight began to illuminate the clouds from below, highlighting a sunset shower. Large, cold rain drops began to patter around me, and I watched mesmerized, as the light, clouds, and rain played on the sky.

Like flies on the sky, contrails are visually annoying, but do they also affect climate? For a discussion of the possible effects of these artificial clouds, see NOVA's Dimming the Sun: The Contrail Effect by Peter Tyson.

From today's run in the Simi Hills, northwest of Los Angeles.

Less than a week after the rain in Southern California, grasses and other annuals are sprouting, and open space areas are starting to turn green.

From a run at Ahmanson Ranch this afternoon.

The first day of sun following rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ahmanson Ranch was not nearly as wet and muddy as I expected, and although water was pooled in Las Virgenes Creek, the stream was not running. Would have been a very different scenario had this storm occurred later in the rain season. Some rain totals for the Los Angeles area and comments about the developing El Nino are in my October Weathernotes.

The soft trail conditions were nearly ideal for barefoot running, and I took my running shoes off part way through the run. The muddy sections were great fun, and running barefoot was a enjoyable way to put a wrap on the rain event. I can't wait for it to rain again!

The grass backlit by the sun is smilo (Piptatherum miliaceum). Introduced into California over a century ago, smilo is a drought resistant grass that has been used for pasture, and for erosion control following fires.

Did an enjoyable run at Sage Ranch today that started and ended in showers, but also included a few moments of subdued sun.

The shrub with the yellow-orange leaves is rain soaked poison oak. As I took the photo, a California towhee landed in its limbs, probably a little concerned about the unexpected house guest. From a towhee point of view, a thick chaparral shrub is a homey place with all of the creature comforts.

In chaparral areas towhees are common, and I frequently see them on my runs. Over years of running I've learned some of their habits.

Many times when I encounter a towhee on the trail, it will flutter and scurry along the ground just ahead of me, and then dart into a bush. Although not as dramatic as the broken wing act of a killdeer, this "catch me if you can" behavior is probably intended to draw a potential predator away from the bird's nesting and living area.

Very different animals will often cooperate to benefit each other. In the case of a towhee, one of its best buds is apparently the cottontail rabbit. On occasion I will see the bird and rabbit foraging together on a trail. When trying to keep a wary eye out for potential predators, four eyes are much better than two.

Where there is one towhee, there will often be another nearby -- presumably its mate. At Sage Ranch, I've repeatedly encountered a pair of towhees near a particular shrub over a period of several years.

Clouds swirled around me as I worked up the steep trail toward an overlook near Rocky Peak. I stopped and listened to the patter of the rain against the rocks, its intensity rising and falling with the gusts of wind.

The wind-driven rain trickled down my face, tasting cool and clean. It didn't matter that my running clothes were soaked and that with each gust I could feel a chill. It was raining!

In the same manner that a color will sometimes appear especially pure and vibrant, there was an unusual liveliness to this rain.

Who would think a western Pacific typhoon could so directly affect California's weather? But that's what is happening. The moisture from typhoon Melor, which was over Japan just a few days ago, was captured by an extending and strengthening jet stream. This has resulted in an atmospheric river of moisture, stretching across the Pacific and into California.

This morning, Intellicast composite radar shows Northern and Central California already being hammered by the system. Southern California has seen a few showers, and several stations have already recorded significant rainfall. As of 9:00 a.m. the CNRFC Precipitation Map shows isolated 24 hr. rainfall amounts in the foothills and mountains of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles County ranging from about 0.16 inch at Sandberg to 0.61 inch at West Big Pine.

The last day there was measurable rainfall at Downtown Los Angeles (USC) was on June 5, 2009, when 0.13 inch was recorded. Computer weather models forecast the best dynamics and highest rainfall totals will be in the northern two-thirds of the state, but in recent days have been trending wetter in the Los Angeles area, particularly in the mountains.

With so much moisture in the atmosphere, it takes very little lift to produce rain. Onshore winds, full of moisture, are lifted by foothills and mountains across the flow, and the result is rain -- sometimes lots of it. In this case it appears the south to west facing mountains and foothills of Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles counties may record much higher rainfall totals than the lowland areas.

In a decade characterized by unusual El Ninos, the ongoing El Niño of 2009-2010 is another strange one. El Niño signals continue mixed. The Aug-Sep Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), decreased from 0.978 to 0.754, however other El Niño signals appear to be rebounding. In the last two weeks low level equatorial westerly anomalies have increased significantly. The reduction in the strength of the trade winds, and a downwelling Kelvin wave resulting from a very strong westerly wind burst already appear to be increasing upper ocean heat content in the central equatorial Pacific. The 30 day moving Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been dropping, and should return to negative territory in a day or so.

Recurring equatorial westerly wind bursts and enhanced west-central Pacific convection has been slowly migrating eastward. The most recent round of enhanced convection was centered at about 160E. This is consistent with a developing El Niño, and may have contributed to the creation of the atmospheric river now affecting California, by helping to extend the Pacific jet stream following an East Asian mountain torque event.

However, total and relative AAM remain negative, and are lower than is generally the case during a developing El Niño. Of the weak to moderate El Ninos that have occurred Since 1959, only the 1977-78 and 1994-95 El Niños have had negative average July-September relative AAM values comparable to the current El Niño. Since 1959, only 4 of 15 El Niños have had negative average relative AAM values during the Southern California rain season of November to March. (Revised 12/14/09)

Moderate El Niños come in many flavors and have varying impacts. Under the guise of such El Niños Los Angeles experienced its second wettest water year on record in 2004-2005, when 37.25 inches of rain was recorded; then in 2006-2007 had its driest water year on record, when only 3.21" was recorded. What flavor will the 2009-2010 El Niño be?

The photo of the tree and clouds is from yesterday's run at Ahmanson Ranch.

Related post: How Does the El Nino of 2009-10 Compare to Other Warm ENSO Episodes Since 1950?

The windward side of this foxtail pine snag has been blasted by the icy winds of a multitude of Winter storms. The wind has sculpted the mineral-like wood, exposing and accentuating its inner layers.

The photo is from last Saturday's Cottonwood Pass - New Army Pass trail run. Nearly all of this route is above 10,000 ft. and 12 miles of it are above 11,000 ft. This relatively dry, high altitude habitat is home to the southern foxtail pine (Pinus balfouriana subsp. austrina).

One of the less common Sierra conifers, the tree is a long-lived species that is closely related to the bristlecone pine. The FEIS database references a southern foxtail pine 3400 years old, and the Gymnosperm Database a specimen with a crossdated age of 2110 years.

Because the tree grows so slowly, the wood is dense, and dead trees are slow to decay. In the vicinity of Cirque Peak, and a few other areas, dead foxtail pines and remnants are found above the current tree line. By crossdating tree ring sequences, a study published in 1997 found that over the past 3500 years the tree line in this part of the Sierra has generally been higher than it is now.

The study deduced that one period of reduced tree abundance and lowered tree line elevation was associated with warmer temperatures, and at least two severe multi-decade droughts. In contrast, the most recent decline has occurred during a cold, wet period that started about 450 BP.

It is remarkable that some of the dead foxtail pines studied here were alive during the Bronze Age, 4000 years BP.

Or should that be ramping UP for Mt. Disappointment? Anyway, started tapering for the Mt. Disappointment run next Saturday. Did the 13 mile Cheeseboro Canyon keyhole loop from the Victory Trailhead of Ahmanson Ranch yesterday, and then stretched the legs at Sage Ranch today. Both mornings were cool, with low clouds and fog -- very pleasant!

Here's hoping for "not too hot" weather for the race. At the moment, the GFS and ECMWF weather models show a weak upper level trough moving through California in the Friday-Saturday timeframe. Such a scenario should increase the chances of "seasonable" temps for the race -- which would still be quite warm, but maybe not crazy hot.

Update Friday Morning 8/07/09. Broad upper level trough over California this morning is keeping things cool. Yesterday the high recorded at Mt. Wilson was 70, and the low overnight was 48! Southern part of the trough is forecast to hang back over Southern California through Saturday, which could result in temps a little BELOW normal for the Mt. Disappointment race. We'll see!

Related post: Mt. Disappointment 50K 2008 Notes

Poison Oak Along the Blue Canyon Trail.

Since nearly all my weekday runs are in the afternoon, on Summer weekends I usually like to escape the heat and do a run in the mountains -- the higher, the better. But today even the mountains were going to be hot. Hot enough that the National Weather Service had issued an Excessive Heat Warning for a combination of heat and humidity that would "create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses are likely."

It would be cooler at the higher elevations of the Sierra, but there was good chance of thunderstorms developing along the crest of the Sierra, as well as most of the higher mountains of Southern California. Considering the options, I finally decided to do an early morning run in Pt. Mugu State Park. If I was going to run in the heat, it might as well be a scenic run close to home. Maybe the weather in the mountains would be better next weekend.

There are many excellent courses at Pt. Mugu State Park. The course I was doing today is a "backward" variant of the Boney Mountain Half Marathon Course -- up the Old Boney Trail, down to the Danielson Multi-use area, up Ranch Center fire road to the Hidden Pond Trail, and then back on the Upper Sycamore Trail. Water is normally available at Danielson Multi-use area and at the start of the Upper Sycamore Trail.

I should have started the run at dawn, but instead ambled along a section of the Satwiwa Loop trail at sunrise. The light was muted and golden, stretching my shadow well out on the trail ahead. Cool trickles of air filled each dip and gully and I wondered how long the temperate conditions would last. Ironically, the last time I had done this course it had been blustery and cold, and there had been snow on the mountains above Ventura. Not today...

It was warm running up the east facing section of the Old Boney Trail, but not yet hot. The crags to the west of the Danielson cabin site, gleamed in the morning sun, and for a brief instant I debated climbing the ridge. The impulse passed, and once over the shoulder of Boney Mountain, I thoroughly enjoyed the (mostly) downhill running through the Boney Mountain Wilderness to the Blue Canyon Trail junction. Cool air draining from the shaded slopes of Boney Mountain kept temps reasonable in the canyon, and the running was good all the way to the Danielson Multi-use area.

At the Multi-use area there is a choice. The coolest and most direct route to the Upper Sycamore Trail is up shaded (and paved) Sycamore Canyon road. But with the Mt Disappointment race looming, I wanted to get in more time and elevation gain, so opted for the longer, more exposed route up the Ranch Center fire road, and then along the ridge on the Hidden Pond Trail. Yes it was hot, and the humidity was up a bit, but it was still scenic and enjoyable in a "I'm not going to let the heat get to me" kind of way. And I knew a water faucet was waiting for me at the point where the Hidden Pond Trail rejoins Sycamore Canyon road, and the Upper Sycamore Trail continues eastward.

Maybe it was the heat, or maybe the coyote had learned to scavenge food from hikers -- whatever the case the coyote ahead of me on the Upper Sycamore trail didn't seem to be in any particular hurry to get off the trail. Coyotes are an odd sort, very intelligent and adaptable, but in my experience not normally any kind of threat.

Usually they will scurry away from a runner. This coyote wasn't scurrying anywhere. I picked up the pace and clapped my hands, and eventually the animal grudgingly took cover to the side of the trail. But, as it turns out, only about 4 feet off the trail. This was odd, brazen behavior, and I kept a wary eye as I passed.

The final challenge of the morning was the hot climb up to Satwiwa on the Danielson road from the end of the Upper Sycamore Trail. The hill isn't long or particularly steep, but it faces directly into the sun. With the heat of the day building, it wasn't easy.

Overall it was an excellent run that would have been even better with an earlier start. Here's a Google Earth browser view of a GPS trace of the approximately 14.5 mile route.

Related post: Big Sycamore Canyon Circuit

Last year on this date, Southern California was in the middle of a heatwave. On June 20, 2008, Los Angeles Pierce College in Woodland Hills reached a record-setting high of 111°F, and on June 21 the temp reached 108°F!

Not so this June! So far this month, Downtown Los Angeles has not had a day when the average temperature was above normal. And it's not only the low elevation stations that have been cool. Several times this month the overnight low at the Big Pines RAWS, near Wrightwood in the San Gabriel Mountains, has dropped into the thirties, and daytime temps have averaged more than 10 degrees below normal.

This translates to great running weather in Southern California, and near perfect weather for trail running in the San Gabriel Mountains. Today, did the Three Points - Buckhorn loop, along with a short detour up to the summit of Waterman Mountain. The route worked out to about 23 miles with a reality-checked elevation gain/loss of about 3800'. Here's a Google Earth browser view of a GPS trace of the run.

The title photo is of Dave Burke, cruising down a nice section of the PCT between Cloudburst Summit and Cooper Canyon.

Related post: Three Points Loop Plus Mt. Waterman

Overnight the lows on the high peaks had dipped into the 30's, and today the high temps would be 15-20 degrees below normal. If I could have ordered the perfect mix of temperature, clouds and sun for running in the Angeles high country, it would be difficult to top the weather this weekend and last.

Now that Hwy 2 was open between Islip Saddle and Vincent Gap, and we could do a car shuttle, Miklos, Krisztina and I had decided to run from Inspiration Point to Islip Saddle on the PCT. Starting at Inspiration Point instead of Vincent Gap adds about 4.5 miles to the run, but the miles are relatively easy, and the stretch is a good warmup for the 2800 ft. climb up Mt. Baden-Powell.

Here's a Google Earth browser view of a GPS trace of our approximately 18 mile route. We wandered down the south ridge of Mt. Baden-Powell, so this is a little longer than the usual route. The elevation gain was about 3300 ft., with an elevation loss of about 4000 ft. Continuing over Mt. Williamson to Eagle's Roost would add about 4 miles and 1400 ft. of elevation gain.

Note: The speck in the summit photo is one of several violet-green swallows working lift and zooming along the top of southeast face.

Off to the south, I heard the distant rumble of thunder. The developing line of thunderstorms had swept through the West Valley about an hour before I began my run at Ahmanson Ranch.

Unusual weather for June. Not so much that there were thunderstorms, but that the thunderstorms were in part the result of an unseasonably strong jet embedded in the base of an upper level low.

It's a bit of a stretch, but an argument could be made that these storms were a calling card of an increasingly energetic atmosphere, and a developing El Niño.

Several factors point to an increased probability of El Niño conditions developing over the next few months. Among them, Equatorial Pacific SSTs have increased, and the subsurface heat content is the highest it's been since the El Niño of 2006-07.

But as the short-lived 2006-07 El Niño event demonstrates, an El Niño is more than just warm Pacific equatorial SSTs. Through complex forcing and feedback mechanisms, the atmosphere and oceans have to cooperate on a global scale. Generally speaking the atmosphere speeds up when there is an El Niño, and slows down during a La Nina.

And it looks like the atmosphere may be speeding up. Orbits of the Global Wind Oscillation, a measure of atmospheric momentum, have been shifting upward, in the direction of more energetic values usually associated with an El Niño.

But an El Niño is not a done deal. The climate system is just leaning in that direction. As climate scientist Klaus Wolter has pointed out, in a similar situation in 1973-1975, the climate fell back into a La Niña for another year. At this point it appears we may be diverging from that analog case. We'll see!

Update June 6, 2009. The April-May Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) value, released today, has increased by 0.54 to +0.34. As discussed by MEI originator, Klaus Wolter, the 3-month rise of the MEI since January-February is the 4th highest on record for this time of year, exceeded only by the strong Niño of 1997. According to Dr. Wolter, if next month's MEI rank is at least the same as this month (37th), "it would be unprecedented for it to drop below that high-neutral ENSO-phase range by the end of 2009, virtually excluding a return to La Niña, based on the MEI record since 1950."

Related links: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, ENSO Wrap-Up

So far, Brett's intro to Bay Area trail running had taken me to the Marin Headlands and Pt. Reyes National Seashore -- outstanding areas in which to run and hike, with great scenery, terrain and courses. An area that might be overlooked by a visiting trail runner is the Presidio. That's where we were running this morning.

Warm weather had chased the fog away. Saturday, the high temp at SFO was 89 degrees, and today the high was forecast to be in the 90s. So it wasn't a big surprise that at 7:30, the temp was already near 70 when we descended the stairs at Inspiration Point. (SFO would set a record high of 93 later in the day.)

Our loop started on the Ecology Trail and then worked down through the Main Post, under the 101, across Crissy Marsh, and onto the Golden Gate Promenade (Bay Trail). From the Promenade there were iconic views of San Francisco Bay, Alcatraz, Marin, and the Golden Gate Bridge. Just past the Warming Hut we turned up the East Battery Trail stairs, and then continued west, under the southern abutments of the bridge.

Here we followed the Coastal Trail past several 100+ year old defense batteries, to another nice overlook of the Golden Gate. After clambering up on one of the battlements, we headed east to Fort Scott and picked up the Bay Area Ridge Trail. This segment took us through the Presidio's trademark pine, cypress and eucalyptus forest to the high point of the course near Rob Hill Campground, then along the Presidio Golf Course, and finally down past Andy Goldsworthy’s cypress spire to the car. From the point of view of this out-of-towner, the course was spectacular, and it's hard to imagine an urban run with more variety!

Our particular loop worked out to about 5.5 miles, with an elevation gain/loss of about 450 ft. Here's a Presidio Trust map of Presidio Trails and Overlooks (PDF), a NPS Presidio Map, and a Google Earth browser view of a GPS trace of our loop.

I had a great time in San Francisco, and can't wait to get back and see more... Thanks Brett & Amanda!

Brrr... I picked up the pace -- even with long sleeves it was COLD on Rocky Peak Road. Another in a series of blustery April systems was stirring up the weather in Southern California. Thickening clouds spritzed rain, and a belligerent wind told me in laughing gusts that I could not run fast enough to stay warm.

Occasionally a patch of sun would find its way through the clouds, briefly warm and encouraging. I needed only to think of the 100 degree days ahead to appreciate the chilly temps.

Another cool system is forecast to move through Southern California on Friday, bringing with it a chance of rain -- and more great running weather. Easter weekend should be spectacular!

Some related posts: Simi Valley from Rocky Peak, San Fernando Valley from Rocky Peak

There are still a few rogue mud puddles out at Ahmanson ranch, but the Goldfields are blooming, the meadowlarks singing, and it feels like Spring!

Last week it looked like our rain season might not be over. Now I'm beginning to wonder. This week the GFS and ECMWF forecasts have been much drier in Southern California, with most of the activity focused on the Pacific Northwest. No significant rain is forecast here over the next week, and both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts project below average precipitation in Southern California.

If these medium range forecasts are on the mark, March rainfall for Downtown Los Angeles (USC) will fall well below the 3.14 inch norm. Normal April rainfall is 0.83 inches, and May only 0.31 inches. Beyond March it becomes increasingly unlikely that a big rain event will significantly boost our rainfall total.

Since November 1, Downtown Los Angeles has recorded 8.80 inches of precipitation. This is about what would be expected during a La Nina, and within the range indicated in the composite precipitation map included in the post Southern California 2008-2009 Winter Precipitation Outlook, back in October.

In his March 6 post, Ed Berry suggested the possibility of "more energetic progressive troughs" in the western U.S in the week 2-3 timeframe. That wouldn't necessarily result in rain in Southern California, but might improve our chances. Numerical weather model performance generally suffers during seasonal transitions, so maybe there are still some surprises lurking in the Pacific. We'll see!

My trail running shoes had not been wet or muddy since sometime in December. During the entire month of January, Downtown Los Angeles (USC) recorded about one-third of an inch of rain. Not only had it been dry, it had been warm. On a dozen of those January days, the high temperature topped eighty degrees, setting a new record!

But Winter had returned. The past three days, Los Angeles had received about 1.5 inches of rain, valley and foothill locations 2-4 inches, and some mountain stations as much as 5-7 inches. And more Winter weather was on the way. Excited about the change in the weather, today's run was one with good muck and mire potential -- the Bulldog Loop in Malibu Creek State Park.

We were not disappointed. Near Century Lake, mud the consistency of peanut butter pulled at our shoes and slowed the climb up Crags Rd, Further west, near the M.A.S.H. site, calf-deep water on the trail washed the gunk off.

The trail conditions on the remainder of the loop were more straightforward. From time to time, shafts of sun would pierce the clouds, resulting in a patchwork of shadow and sun that emphasized the rugged terrain. Along the crest, the ocean views were superb! Before descending to Tapia Park we ran out to Mesa Peak, and then followed the ridgeline to an overlook of the coast. (Marked peak 1800 on the topo.)

Including the side trip to the overlook, this variation of the Bulldog loop worked out to an exhilarating 16.5 miles, with an elevation gain/loss of about 2700 ft.

If current forecasts and outlooks for this month hold true, this won't be our last wet and muddy trail run this February. In a couple of weeks, Los Angeles rainfall totals may climb above normal for the first time this rain season. We'll see!

Some related posts: Fog Along Malibu Creek, Bulldog Loop and the Corral Fire

My legs were still pretty worked from the Boney Mountain Half Marathon. Instead of backing off of the pace on my weekday workouts, I had continued to experiment with a change in running technique that was resulting in faster paced runs. I was excited about the increase in speed, but logging fast times on oft-run courses after a strenuous race doesn't equal recovery. Neither does blasting up a peak in the San Gabriel Mountains.

But it was one of those impossible to ignore, blue sky, short-sleeved Southern California Winter weekends. This would be an unprecedented eighth straight January day that the high temperature in Los Angeles exceeded eighty degrees. In the yin yang of weather, the western half of the U.S. has been enjoying unusually warm temps, while the eastern half of the country shivered.

Taking maximum advantage of the good weather, yesterday I had done a little kayaking on the Kern River, this morning some rock climbing at Stoney Point, and now we were huffing and puffing up Strawberry Peak (6164') -- and doing it "for time."

We had started at Red Box, the shortest and technically most moderate way to climb the peak. By this route it's about 3.4 miles to the summit, with an elevation gain of roughly 1600 ft. About two-thirds of that distance is well-graded trail, the rest is steep use trail up a broad, brush covered ridge.

About halfway between Lawlor Saddle and the summit of Strawberry it became plainly and painfully evident that my legs had given their all. I complain. Miklos -- always sympathetic -- asks why I can't go any faster.

On the final steep push to the summit ridge I try a different tactic to slow the pace, and tell a story about an unbelievably angry and aggressive raccoon I once encountered near here. But like President Jimmy Carter's rabbit incident, it loses something in the telling. Redlined, we crest the summit ridge and sprint (relatively speaking) toward the summit.

On the summit, there is not a breath of wind. The view is exceptional. To the southwest, sunlight gleams on the waters of the Pacific near Palos Verdes, and to the west snow gleams white on Mt. Baldy. Some 90 miles distant, near Palm Springs, is the asymmetric silhouette of Mt. San Jacinto.

Soon we're headed down. As I drop below the summit ridge, a snowball whizzes past my ear, crashing on the trail ahead. It has been warm and dry for weeks, but remarkably, there are a few patches of snow. It is a reminder that Winter is not over, and like the snow, is lurking in the shadows.

Green beneath Summer's bleached stalks, the growth of this grass at Sage Ranch reflects the near normal rain season we've had to date in the Los Angeles area, and over much of Southern California. Since the start of the water year on July 1, Downtown Los Angeles (USC) has recorded 4.66 inches of rain. When this photograph was taken, January 11th, 4.66 inches was almost exactly normal rainfall for the date.

However, as is so often the case in Southern California, this apparent normality is the sum of offsetting wet and dry periods. December's precipitation was generally well above normal, but January has been dry, dry, dry. Today, the Los Angeles rainfall total is about 0.5 inch below normal, and every day it doesn't rain, our deficit increases by about 0.10 inch.

So when might it rain? A very strong 200 kt Pacific jet stream has pushed up a high pressure ridge over the West Coast, blocking storms and warming temperatures. Big upper level ridges such as this are consistent with La Nina, and have been a recurring theme this Fall and Winter. Much of our rainfall and cold weather this season has occurred when an extended Pacific jet collapses or contracts, and a blocking ridge shifts west, opening the door to cold storms plunging down the backside of the ridge from the north.

Over the next 1-2 weeks, this is expected to happen again, but this time there is a wildcard in the mix. One of the reasons the Pacific jet is so strong is the active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is present in the Western Pacific. As described in this Climate Prediction Center document, this scenario sometimes leads to a heavy West Coast precipitation event.

It's too far out for the medium range models to be of much help in assessing the likelihood of such an event developing. At the moment, about the only thing that can be said with some certainty is that a pattern change is in the works, and by the end of January there is a chance of some rain in California and the West. We'll see!

Related post: Southern California 2008-2009 Winter Precipitation Outlook, Snow on Oat Mountain

Clouds moving onshore ahead of a low pressure system that is expected to produce rain in Southern California Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. Track of the low is now projected to be a little more to the west, so the heaviest rain may occur just offshore.

From an out and back run yesterday to "fossil point" via the Chumash Trail and Rocky Peak fire road. View is of Simi Valley, with Boney Mountain and Conejo Mountain in the distance.

Rocks and snow at the top of the Chumash Trail, near its junction with Rocky Peak fire road, in Rocky Peak Park.

From Thursday's run in the snow.

Our latest storm added another half inch of rain to our water year total in Los Angeles. This brings the water year rainfall total to 2.85 inches. This is 1.35 inches above normal for the date. As much as a foot of snow was reported in the Antelope Valley and the snow level dropped to near 2000 ft in the foothills and mountains of Ventura and Los Angeles counties.

What's next? Things should stay dry in Southern California until around Monday, when a fast moving front sweeps through the state. Later in the week, sometime around Christmas, the models are suggesting the possibility of a major system impacting California. We'll see!

The photograph of Oat Mountain was taken this morning on an out and back run on Rocky Peak fire road. The highest stretches of the fire road were covered with an icy layer of snow.

Related post: Chumash Trail Rocks & Snow

Clearing clouds, northwest of Los Angeles, following the passage of an upper low storm system that resulted in widespread rainfall in Southern California. Several rainfall records for November 26 were broken in Los Angeles County.

Update 12/5/08 P.M. High amplitude flow continues to wreak havoc with forecasts. Our on-again, off-again chance of a shower this weekend might be on again. Original cut-off upper low center is still well offshore, but another low center has developed on the downstream side of high amplitude ridge, and this one is much closer to the Southern California coast. The low appears to be entraining some moisture, and could produce some showers, particularly as the low moves onshore and is absorbed in the main flow. We'll see!

Update 12/5/08 A.M. No rain is expected in SoCal this weekend... The cut-off upper low set up much further west than suggested by models Tuesday and now is spinning out in the eastern Pacific, nearly halfway to Hawaii. At the moment, it looks like it could be mid-month before our next chance for significant rain.

Update 12/2/08. Computer models have been having a tough time with both the short and medium term forecasts for Southern California. Recent runs have been hinting at the possibility of some rain Saturday or Sunday. This would depend on the strength, position and behavior of an upper low that is forecast to form off the Southern California coast Thursday.

From a run at Sage Ranch Park, near Simi Valley, California.

When I woke to the rumble of thunder, rain pounding the roof, and wind roaring in the trees, I wondered if a planned run of the Boney Mountain Half Marathon course with John Dale was going to turn into an epic. Radar and satellite imagery showed subtropical moisture streaming in from the southwest, producing bands of showers and thunderstorms. Things don't always look as bad at the trailhead as they do on weather radar, so I grabbed my gear and headed for Wendy Drive.

The weather looked promising driving through Agoura, but the further west I drove, the more ominous the skies became. Somewhere around Lynn Road KNX announced that the NWS had issued a severe thunderstorm warning for the Santa Clarita area, with cloud to ground lightning, heavy rain, possible damaging winds and dime-sized hail. It was with that thought in mind, and a shower pelting the car, that I pulled into the parking area on Potrero Rd.

If anything, weather is fickle, and sometimes that quirkiness can work for you. There was an area of heavy rain to the west, but the activity appeared to be skirting the area, so we opted to start the run.

There were a few sprinkles as we jogged down the blacktop into Big Sycamore Canyon, and a few more as we did the first easy mile of the Hidden Pond Trail. Down in the canyon it was hard to tell what the weather was doing, but after gaining some elevation we reached a better vantage point. Just a few miles away thunderstorms were being swept northeast from the Santa Barbara Channel, across the Oxnard Plain, and into the Ventura Mountains.

Skies darkened and the shower intensity increased as we ran down Ranch Center Fire Road. The wind was blowing in the fitful gusts that precede a thunderstorm, and it felt as if the sky might fall at any moment. With a slight shift in the track of the thunderstorms we might be running in a deluge, dodging lightning strikes.

But it didn't shift. Following the shower, the sun broke through the clouds just long enough to add glints to the raindrops dripping from the leaves of sycamores and oaks in Blue Canyon. Under overcast skies, we climbed up the Old Boney Trail and into the Boney Mountain Wilderness.

We had not seen a hiker, runner, or rider since turning onto the Hidden Pond Trail early in the run. So it was a bit of a surprise when we rounded a corner and ran into Ed Reid and several other volunteers with the Santa Monica Mountains Trails Council doing trail maintenance on a section of the Old Boney Trail.

Just about any weekend of the year, dedicated members of the SMMTC will be somewhere in the Santa Monica Mountains, working on a trail. To get a better idea of the amount of work done and the number of trails involved, take a look at this list of recently maintained trails! How many of these have you hiked, run or ridden?

There are several ways to help support SMMTC:

• Volunteer to do trail maintenance.
• Join the SMMTC.
• Make your REI purchases using the REI link on the SMMTC web site. REI will donate a percentage of the purchase to SMMTC.

See the Santa Monica Mountains Trails Council web site for more info.

Some related posts: Boney Mountain Half Marathon, Return to Hidden Pond

Downtown Los Angeles (USC) happened to be under the right cloud yesterday, and recorded 0.02 inch of rain. There's a continuing chance of showers in Southern California through the weekend. The area could use some rain. The last storm to produce more than a couple tenths of inch of rain at Downtown Los Angeles was back on February 24, 2008 -- more than eight months ago.

Last year, California's rain season might have been scripted by Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Lowland rain totals and the Sierra snowpack were well above normal through the end of February, and then the spigot was turned off. The storm track shifted north, and California had its driest March to May on record. (The March 29, 2008 post in Ed Berry's Atmospheric Insights blog describes the events that may have led to and maintained this shift.)

Which rain season personality will surface this Winter? Earlier this year the equatorial Pacific tried to transition to El Nino, but the atmosphere didn't cooperate. As measured by the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), the ENSO state has returned to the weak La Nina threshold. And as measured by the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO), an uncooperative atmosphere has continued to cycle through a La Nina base state.

This suggests a winter precipitation outlook with a La Nina flavor -- similar to last year. This precipitation map, generated by the ESRL-PSD Composite ENSO plots page, shows the mean November-March precipitation for the U.S. during 9 La Niña events from 1948 to the present. The average La Niña rainfall indicated for coastal Southern California is in the 7.0-10.5 inch range. Last season's November-March rainfall in Downtown Los Angeles was about 12 inches.

Here's the current Nov-Dec-Jan precipitation outlook issued October 16 by the Climate Prediction Center. The "EC" means an equal chance of below normal, near normal, or above normal precipitation. The IRI Multi Model Seasonal Forecast for Nov-Dec-Jan is similar. We'll see what we get!

This weather worn sandstone boulder is a familiar landmark to those who do the Chumash Trail. It's a little less than a mile up the trail, and is at the point where the trail turns east and continues its climb along a cobble strewn divide. The chaparral here and elsewhere along the Chumash Trail was burned last week by the western flank of the Sesnon fire.

In the areas bordering the Chumash Trail, the Sesnon Fire appears to have been much less intense than the 2003 Simi Fire. In the case of the Simi Fire, it had been about 15 years since the area was burned, the fuel load was moderately high, and the fire intensity was such that nearly all plant materials were consumed down to the mineral earth.

Recovery from the Simi Fire has been primarily through the slow processes of basal-sprouting and seed germination. Just prior to the Sesnon Fire, common chaparral plants such as chamise, yerba santa, toyon and holly-leaved cherry had recovered about 70% to 90% of their 2003 size.

The recency of the Simi fire appears to have reduced the fuel load available to the Sesnon Fire. In many cases grasses and other annuals (many invasive) were consumed, but adjacent chaparral shrubs were only scorched. Many of these shrubs look like they will probably be able to recover through foliage replacement, rather than crown-sprouting. One exception might be laurel sumac, which appears to have been less fire tolerant.

Update 12/23/08. Only a small percentage of the scorched Yerba Santa are recovering through direct foliage replacement. Most of these plants are recovering through the process of crown sprouting.

In addition to reducing the fire danger, a little light rain would help jump start the recovery process. Computer weather models have been hinting at a change in the weather around November 1, and now seem to be converging on the possibility of a shower in Southern California around Halloween, followed by a front and some rain later in the weekend. That's still a week away, so we'll have to see!

Here's a Google Earth image and Google Earth KMZ file of the perimeters of the Sesnon and Simi Fires, as well as GPS traces of some of the trails in the area.

An unusual, offset lightning scar on a Jeffrey pine in the San Gabriel Mountains, near Los Angeles. The tree is located at an elevation of about 8750', on the ridge east of Mt. Hawkins.

The offset scar is not easily explained. Either the scar was offset when created, became offset as the tree aged, or perhaps multiple strikes have somehow created the appearance of an offset. None of these explanations seem completely satisfactory.

The lightning scar on the Mt. Hawkins tree appears to be older than the scar on the Jeffrey pine on the Three Points - Twin Peaks Saddle trail, and quite a bit older than the scar on the Jeffrey pine on Mt. Baldy's North Backbone Trail.

Technorati Tags: lightning

Or did the Curve Fire trigger a lightning strike?

These trees -- on a section of the Pacific Crest Trail east of Windy Gap -- were burned almost six years ago in the 20,857 acre Curve Fire. According to the Curve Fire Burned Area Emergency Report Implementation Plan, the source of ignition for the devastating fire was "a ritual involving the use of fire (candles) and animal sacrifices." The fire started the afternoon of September 1, 2002.

However, in the document An Exercise Involving Flash Flood and Lightning Potential Forecasts, an alternative ignition source was suggested -- an "out of the blue" lightning strike. Forecasters observed a "single positive lightning strike northeast of the Mount Wilson Observatory" about 1:00 PM PDT (2000Z), near the time the Curve Fire started. According to NWS Lightning Safety Outdoors, such bolts from the blue have been documented to travel more than 25 miles from a thunderstorm cloud.

While there is compelling evidence that the blue sky lightning strike occurred, the time of the strike suggests that it was not the initial source of ignition of the Curve Fire. This UCLA Solar Towercam image is time-stamped at 12:58:58, about the time of the strike. It shows the Curve Fire already underway, with a well-developed smoke column. The photograph also shows the cloud development over the San Gabriel Mountains.

An intriguing question comes to mind. Was the lightning strike a coincidence, or was it somehow triggered by the fire, or the smoke?

According to "Forest Fires: Behavior and Ecological Effects" By Edward A. Johnson, Kiyoko Miyanishi (Academic Press, 2001) large scale lightning detection networks have revealed an association between forest fires and the electrification of thunderstorms. Further, "a shift from negative to positive ground flash prevalence in association with fires and forest fire smoke" has been documented.

So it looks like lightning did not start the Curve Fire, but the Curve Fire may have triggered the positive lightning strike observed by the NWS!

The photograph of trees burned in the Curve Fire is from Sunday's Islip Saddle - Mt. Baden-Powell South Fork run.

Technical papers:

CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING DOWNWIND OF THE 2002 HAYMAN FOREST FIRE IN COLORADO
Timothy J. Lang* and Steven A. Rutledge
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado

Enhanced Positive Cloud-to-Ground Lightning in Thunderstorms Ingesting Smoke from Fires
Walter A. Lyons, Thomas E. Nelson, Earle R. Williams, John A. Cramer, and Tommy R. Turner
Science 2 October 1998 282: 77-80 [DOI: 10.1126/science.282.5386.77] (in Reports)

Technorati Tags: lightning, forest fires, San Gabriel Mountains

We were making good progress up the gargantuan north face of University Peak (13,632'), climbing carefully and doing our best not to knock loose rocks down on each other's heads. We were also doing our best to ignore the gathering clouds -- and the unnerving rumble of distant thunder.

Yes, it would have been better to sleep at the trailhead and get an early start. Especially with a 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms in the forecast. But we didn't. When we should have been taking our first steps on the Kearsarge Pass trail we were eating breakfast burritos in Mojave. So it goes.

Now we were about half way up the 2200' class 2-3 face, and it would take another hour of climbing to reach the summit. That would put us on the summit right around the time of maximum daytime heating -- a bad time to top out if you're trying to avoid a thunderstorm.

Off to the northwest there was another long, rolling, rumble of thunder. Streamers of rain could be seen twining from darkening clouds. Smoke from one or more of California's many fires hung in the valleys to the west of the crest, producing an unnatural and eerie mixture of clouds, smoke, rain, and orange tinted terrain.

We paused in a jumble of broken blocks of granite, hemming and hawing, and otherwise hesitating to make THE decision to descend. Avoiding the issue and pondering the sky, we wondered which fire the smoke was coming from, and -- half in jest -- whether the smoke could have seeded and enhanced the thunderstorm we were watching. Those questions, it turns out, had surprising answers.

I had assumed the smoke was from one of the fires to the west. But this NRL Aqua-MODIS True Color satellite photo from 1:38 in the afternoon reveals the source of the smoke -- it was from the Piute Fire between Lake Isabella and Tehachapi. The long plume of smoke from this fire feeds almost directly north into the large thunderstorm cluster near 37N and -118.5W.

From our vantage point on University Peak, the southern margin of this activity appeared to be about 6 miles away, somewhere near Gardiner Basin. This experimental NRL image shows the convection more clearly. Could this smoke plume have enhanced the storms over the Sierra?

The research article "Smoking Rain Clouds over the Amazon" by M. O. Andreae, et al, published in Science Magazine in 2004, and related research, suggests the possibility. According to that article, vegetation burning produces high concentrations of aerosols which are capable of nucleating cloud droplets. But, convective clouds forming in smoky air show substantially reduced droplet size compared to similar clouds in clean air. The reduced droplet size can delay the onset of precipitation, which in turn can result in enhanced convection.

So why blame the thunderstorm on Cristina? This NRL water vapor satellite photo from 3:30 p.m. suggests that the source of the moisture for the Sierra thunderstorms was Tropical Storm Cristina. An upper level low spinning off the coast had drawn the moisture up from the tropics and into the Sierra.

Related post: Thunderstorm, Shadow and Sun on University Peak (The north face is highlighted by the sun.)

Mammoth Mountain reports more than a foot of snow fell over the Memorial Day weekend, but that translated to cool, puffy white clouds and blue sky weather in the Los Angeles area, seldom seen this late in May.

Taking advantage of the great weather, on Sunday my son and I ran the Garapito figure eight course in Topanga State Park, doing a slight variation that climbed Eagle Rock, before descending the Garapito Trail.

Gov. Schwarzenegger's revised state budget, released May 14, rescinded the funding cuts that would have resulted in the closing of 48 California state parks, including Topanga State Park. For now it appears these state parks will remain open. For more information see the Save Our State Parks and Campaign To Save Topanga State Park web sites.

Related post: California State Park Closures

When considering where I might run this weekend, the words "snow" and "altitude" had a certain appeal. Record high temperatures had been set in the Los Angeles area on Friday and Saturday, and there was little doubt that more temperature records would fall today.

A couple of weeks before I had dodged a few remnant snow drifts on Pleasant View Ridge. From that vantage point you could see that there was much more snow on the steep, north facing slopes along the ridge between Mt. Islip and Mt. Baden-Powell. The S-shaped ridge spans a distance of several miles and links five peaks over 8000 ft: Mt. Islip, Mt. Hawkins, Throop Peak, Mt. Burnham, and Mt. Baden-Powell. Two of the peaks, Mt. Baden-Powell and Throop Peak, exceed 9000 ft. Today, the plan was to do these five peaks as part of an approximately 17 mile out and back route from Islip Saddle, enjoy the snow before it melted, and try to escape the triple digit temps of the lowlands.

Logistically, the difficult peak is Mt. Islip. While the other peaks can be done with relatively minor deviations from the trail, Mt. Islip stands alone, more than a mile from the PCT at Windy Gap. This time I opted to climb Mt. Islip from Islip Saddle via the northwest ridge. I've been investigating stunted Jeffrey and Sugar pines found along the windswept ridges of the San Gabriels, and this direct approach would give me the opportunity to check out more trees.

That was this morning, now I was on by way back from Mt. Baden-Powell, and about a quarter-mile east of Throop Peak. Hot, thirsty, dispirited, and nearly out of water, I had stopped to dig into the side of a dirty snowbank-- attempting to get to snow that at least looked clean. The air temperature was eighty-something, but my fingers were stinging with cold as I scooped the coarse crystals into my Camelbak.

It's amazing what a few sips of chilled water and an icy cold pack against your back can do for your demeanor. A few minutes before I had been debating whether I should just skip Throop Peak and Mt. Hawkins, and get down to Little Jimmy Spring ASAP. Now I could do these peaks and continue to enjoy a very warm -- but beautiful -- day in the San Gabriel Mountains.

Here's a Google Earth image and a Google Earth KMZ file of a GPS trace of my route. GPS reception was poor climbing the ridge to Mt. Islip.

Related post: Snowless San Gabriels

The greens of Southern California's rain season have given way to the sun burnished colors of Summer.

Increasing temperatures over the next few days should also result in an increase in rattlesnake encounters, such as this one today on the "main drag" at Ahmanson Ranch (Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve).

Note: Jon Sutherland nicknamed the main road that connects the Victory trailhead to Las Virgenes Canyon the "main drag." Jon has run out at Ahmanson for more than 30 years. He is second on the Running Streak List for most consecutive days run. As of March 1, 2008 his streak was 14,160 consecutive days (38 years 281 days)!

Related posts: Southern California Greenscape