Rain brings out the richness of the chaparral, enlivening its inhabitants, enhancing its colors, and enriching its fragrances. But in recent weeks rain storms have been few and rainfall far below normal.

The 2011-2012 rain season started out well enough. Thanksgiving Day the water year rainfall total for Downtown Los Angeles (USC) was about an inch above normal. But between Thanksgiving and Christmas the drier weather often associated with La Nina conditions became predominant, and water year totals dropped to about normal.

Northern and Central California were actually much drier than would be expected during a La Nina. Mammoth Mountain recorded no new snow between December 5 and January 19 -- about a month and a half! Our dry spell was nearly as long. Downtown Los Angeles recorded no measurable rain between December 17 and January 21.

The storms Saturday and Monday added about 1.3 inches of rain, boosting the water year rainfall total to 5.06 inches. As of yesterday this was 1.87 inches below normal and about 73% of the normal total.

The problem is this time of year we fall behind another 0.12 to 0.15 inch every day that it doesn't rain. The deficit adds up quickly and if -- as the medium range models currently project -- we don't get any rain for the next 10 days we'll down another inch and at about 64% of normal. We'll see!

The photograph of the Ceanothus trunk is from last Sunday's Will Rogers - Temescal loop trail run.

Related posts: The Color of Rain II, The Color of Rain

These valley oaks have dropped their leaves, but if you were to go by the warm temperatures we've been having in Southern California, you might think it was Summer.

Including today, the high temperature at Pierce College in Woodland Hills, California has reached into the 80s each of the last six days. High temperature records for December 31 - January 5 have been broken at several locations. Among the records broken, yesterday San Gabriel recorded a high of 91, Camarillo 90, and UCLA 89.

It sounds sweltering, and it can be if you're in full sun, but it's not like a 90 degree day in July. Days are short, shadows long, and some north-facing slopes never see the sun. And it does cool down quickly. If you take a look at the overnight lows on those six 80+ days at Pierce College, you'll see the temperature dropped to around 40-42 degrees.

On my run Tuesday afternoon, when the photograph of the valley oaks was taken, the temperature varied by as much as 20-25 degrees between some high and low points.

It has been great weather for running, but I'm ready for a change in the pattern and a little rain!

Spotted these unusual clouds while running in Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve today. Better known as Ahmanson Ranch, the open space area is on the western margin of the San Fernando Valley, northwest of Los Angeles.

The clouds were strikingly similar to clouds I'd photographed last January following the development and dissipation of a band of mid-level mammatus clouds over the San Fernando Valley. As before, the clouds were round-bottomed and were ragged with virga.

Upper air charts and model analyses indicated the clouds were at an altitude of about 20K-25K, and were associated with a very small scale upper level disturbance.

Here's a wider view of the clouds.

Related post: Mammatus Clouds Over the San Fernando Valley, More posts...

This morning did the Boney Mountain north side loop with Tom and Elisa, who were visiting from Idaho.

Thanks to a moderate offshore flow, visibility from the high point at the top of the ridge (2900'+) was spectacular.

Anacapa and Santa Cruz Island loomed nearby, their eastern shores only 25 to 30 miles away. To the left of Exchange Peak and about 50 miles distant, the low silhouette of Catalina seemed to hover above the shimmering ocean. A little more to the east and about 40 miles away, Palos Verdes Peninsula jutted from behind Sandstone Peak and into the Pacific.

To the north and northeast Hines Peak (27 miles) and Cobblestone Mountain (33 miles) were prominent. A little further to the east and across I-5 Liebre Mountain and Burnt Peak (44 miles) could be seen.

Many of the peaks of the San Gabriel Mountains were easily seen, including Mt. Baldy about 75 miles to the east.

The distance winner was Mt. San Jacinto, a hard to see smudge in the haze on the eastern horizon, about 130 miles away.

The Burger Run is one of those runs that is much more difficult than its 14.5 miles and 2000' of elevation gain would suggest. For one thing the Whiskey Flat Trail ain't no namby-pamby city trail. It's a rustic single track trail in the Southern Sierra that runs along the Kern River from the outskirts of Kernville up to Johnny McNally's Fairview Lodge and Restaurant -- and burger stand.

The trail is single track all of the way, with so many ups and downs you'll think you're riding a Magic Mountain roller coaster. It seems around every corner there is another creek or a ravine. The running is varied and technical, ranging from sweet pine-needle-lined stretches of trail to gnarly, V-rutted, overgrown, rocky, sandy, steep sections that test your trail running skill.

For a time it looked like a big low moving down the coast might cause some weather problems, but overnight rain turned to partly cloudy skies race day morning, with near perfect weather for the runners and walkers.

Many thanks to race director Mike Lane, all the volunteers, McNally's, Indian Wells Brewing Company, and all of the friendly hikers and runners. Proceeds from the race benefit Run 4 A Way, a local non-profit group dedicated to enhancing the fitness and well being of the local youth. Results and finish line photos are posted on Run 4 A Way's Facebook page.

Here's an interactive Google Earth browser view of the Burger Run course and an elevation profile generated in SportTracks. Following are a few additional photos. Click for a larger image:

Aid Station #1	Sock'em Dog Rapid	Steep Climb
Runner, River & Road	Kern Peaks	Ten Miles In

I don't say this very often, but it was great to be running on pavement -- smooth, even, consistent pavement. All I had to do was put one foot in front of the other and chug on down the blacktop.

I was running down Valley of the Falls Drive from the Vivian Creek trailhead to the Momyer Creek trailhead after ascending San Gorgonio Mountain (11,499'). San Gorgonio is the highest peak in Southern California, the nearest higher peaks being Charleston Peak (11,916') west of Las Vegas, and Olancha Peak (12,123') in the Sierra Nevada.

What a difference a week makes! Last week an unseasonably deep upper level low, unusually strong 170+ kt Pacific jet, and associated cold front combined to produce record-setting rainfall and cool temperatures in Southern California. This week high pressure and a weak offshore flow produced triple digit temperatures in some areas and set new high temperature records Wednesday in Downtown Los Angeles, Long Beach and Santa Barbara.

Which pattern is more likely this rain season? Will Southern California tend to be drier like this week, or wetter like last week and last year? Despite last year's wet rain season, wet La Nina Winters are not the norm. Generally, La Nina conditions result in drier than normal rain seasons in Southern California, and El Nino wetter.

Following a Summer respite La Nina conditions have reemerged in the equatorial Pacific, and appear to be consolidating. Equatorial SST anomalies have continued to decrease and now range from -1.5°C at 100°W to -0.5°C at 170°E. Equatorial Pacific temperature cross sections show substantial subsurface cooling from July 11 to September 11. The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) has dropped from -0.5 for July/August to -0.8 for the August/September season. This drops the MEI from a rank of 16th for July/August to 13th for August/September since 1950. This is well within La Nina territory but weaker than last year's rank of 1st for August/September.

A precipitation composite for seven years* since 1950 in which La Nina conditions persisted or reemerged in the year following a first year La Nina indicates that "on average" the coastal Southern California climate division recorded about 5 to 6 inches less precipitation than normal for the period November through March. The percent of normal water year rainfall recorded at Downtown Los Angeles (USC) ranged from a low of 47% (1971, 7.17"), to a high of 106% (1955, 16.00"). The average rainfall for these years was 70.5%, or 10.7".

We'll get the official NOAA/CPC outlooks next week around October 20, when CPC's Three-Month Precipitation Outlooks and NOAA Winter Outlook are expected to be released.

*The years included in the selection were 1950-51, 1955-56, 1962-63, 1971-72, 1974-75, 1999-2000 and 2008-09. The base period was 1971-2000. The selection was based on the MEI.

The viewpoint above is a few hundred yards up the Pacific Crest Trail from Angeles Crest Highway at Inspiration Point. Craig and I had paused near the start of our trail run from Inspiration Point to Islip Saddle to check out the view. 

The mountain across the way is Mt. Baden-Powell (9,399').  Three miles away as the bird flies, our earthbound route along Blue Ridge, down to Vincent Gap, and then up the forty-something switchbacks to the top of the peak would total around nine miles. From the top of the peak it would be about eight miles to Islip Saddle.

Zooming in on the peak, the white arrow marks the location of the Wally Waldron Lodgepole Pine. For more than a millennia this grand tree has stood high on this mountain, resisting the strongest of winds and the most perfect of storms. Not all are so durable. A lodgepole pine feet away from the Wally Waldron tree was toppled in a storm last Winter.

Given the short-sleeve weather, the most unexpected discovery on today's run was ice under the trees just up the ridge from the Wally Waldron tree. The ice had been deposited on the trees a few days before, when an unseasonably strong storm set a new rainfall record for the date in Los Angeles.

The running on the PCT between Mt. Baden-Powell and Islip Saddle was outstanding and the views superb. Along the way we did the short climb to the top of Throop Peak, checked out the Mt. Hawkins Lightning Tree, and enjoyed the cold spring water at Little Jimmy Spring.

Some related posts: Perils of Winter, Surprises of Summer; Wally Waldron Lodgepole Pine; PCT from Inspiration Point to Islip Saddle

Somewhere around the junction of the 210 and 605 I saw a flash of lightning to the south. As if the flash had been a warning, a gust of wind buffeted my car, and a blizzard of dust and debris blew across the freeway. Then it started to rain. Not good -- especially when you're on your way to a race that ends on top of a 10,000' mountain.

Runners on Edison Road During a Recent Training Run

No matter if you run at the front, middle, or back of the pack, there's the race you plan, and the race you run.

Based on the course info, it looked like the 7th edition of the Mt. Disappointment 50K was going to be more difficult than in 2009 and 2010, adding both mileage and elevation gain. Because of the closure of Mueller Tunnel and the damage done by the Station Fire and subsequent floods, we still wouldn't be running up and over the shoulder of Mt. Disappointment, or down to Clear Creek and around Strawberry Peak, but the 2011 course would make up for that with its own very memorable sections.

To try and cope with the difficulties of the course, I'd put in extra miles and done more back to back Saturday-Sunday runs. But in one of those uh-oh moments a couple of miles into the race, I could feel in my legs that I was probably going to need to adjust my expectations. I wasn't injured. I wasn't getting over a cold or flu. My stomach wasn't upset. I felt pretty good. But there was this nagging bit of fatigue in my legs...

The new wrinkle for 2011 was that we turned off Mt. Wilson Road half-way to Red Box and ran down the Valley Forge Trail. In a training run a few weeks before the race, the Valley Forge Trail had been an obstacle course overgrown with Turricula. Trail work by Hilliard, Rowlan & Company had restored the trail, and today it was in great shape. Here's an interactive Google Earth browser view of the 2011 course and the courses in previous years, and an elevation profile of the 2011 course.

At the bottom of the Valley Forge we turned onto the Gabrieleno Trail, and started up the canyon of the West Fork toward Red Box-Rincon Road. The change in grade from level to uphill confirmed it. I stepped aside so two running friends could pass. Maybe it was a tapering or over-training issue, or maybe it was just "one of those days." Whatever, the legs were just not cooperating. 

The irony is, this was probably a good thing. The day turned out to be the hottest of any Mt. Disappointment race to date. The lurking leg fatigue forced me to not push the pace, which made dealing with the temperature easier.

And hot it was! The forecast had looked decent just two days before the race, but Friday temperatures exploded in the mountains, jumping 10-12 degrees in 24 hours. The hot temps on Friday carried over into Saturday, making race day just that much warmer. 

Here are the race day temperatures at Clear Creek and Chilao for 2005-2011, and Mt. Wilson for 2009-2011. And these temps are the temperature off the ground and in the shade! A better indication of the temperature in the sun  is the "fuel temperature." This is the temperature of a ponderosa pine dowel in direct sun. Here are plots of the race day fuel temperature at Clear Creek and Chilao for 2005-2011.

Because I wasn't pushing the pace I didn't hesitate to take a little extra time at aid stations. I can still feel that ice cold sponge on the back of my neck, and the cold water running down my back. This year there were numerous small stream crossings, and I think there was at least one small stream between every aid station. This was "free" cooling, and I paused a dozen times to dump water over my head. Thanks to the West Fork San Gabriel River, I was soaked from head to toe for the first steep, sun-baked section of Edison Road. This was also the case on the Silver Moccasin Trail in Shortcut Canyon and on part of Kenyon Devore.

Hot day or not there were some remarkable performances. Heather Fuhr was not only was the first place woman, she was fourth overall and set a new women's course record of 5:07:11. Perennial favorite Jorge Pacheco sped through the tough Mt. Disappointment course in 4:46:29, winning the overall and setting a new course record in the Men's 40-49 Division.

Once again the event was superbly organized by race director Gary Hilliard and the Mt. Disappointment 50K Staff, with the help of an extraordinary group of volunteers, runners, SAR personnel and sponsors. Thank you!

Related post: Mt. Disappointment 50K 2010 Notes

The plan earlier in the week had been to do a day trip to the Sierra Saturday or Sunday and run the Cottonwood - New Army Pass loop, but computer models had shown a monsoonal flow developing, and a look at a satellite image Friday afternoon confirmed the forecast. Friday evening Whitney Portal was hit by a flash flood with water and mud reported up to waist deep in the campground. Runoff from the t-storms was increased by rain melting higher elevation snow, and by the ground already being wet from the prolonged melt of this year's record-setting snowpack.

Computer forecasts indicated thunderstorms would likely continue in the mountains and deserts of Southern California through the weekend. Saturday I ran a few miles in the morning and then around lunchtime checked the weather in the Sierra. Strong thunderstorms had developed in the Southern Sierra, and a flash flood warning had been issued for the eastern slopes of the Sierra in the vicinity of Cottonwood Lakes Basin. Time to switch to plan B.

Plan B was to do a training run on the Mt. Disappointment 50K course. Mt. D is a figure-8 course, where each loop of the eight contributes about 16 miles and 3000' or so of elevation gain/loss. Earlier this July there was a training run from Mt. Wilson on the Valley Forge - West Fork - Kenyon Devore part of the eight. Today we did another part of the figure-8 starting at Shortcut Saddle, running down the Silver Moccasin Trail to West Fork, then up to Newcomb Saddle, and then completed the loop to Shortcut on Edison Road. In the 50K, this loop would start at West Fork, but the sequence of trails would be the same.

Along with the race-ending climb up Kenyon Devore to Mt. Wilson, the climb out from the West Fork San Gabriel River to Shortcut Saddle on Edison Road is one of the more "memorable" sections of the Mt. Disappointment course. At least Kenyon Devore has some shade. Even on a blustery Spring day the 5.5 mile climb up Edison Road (2N23) can be a warm one, and in direct sun in the heat of Summer it can be downright scorching. Not so today -- a layer of monsoon clouds, a fresh breeze, and an occasional drop or two of rain kept the temperature on the ascent disturbingly reasonable.

The run worked out great, but may have been a bit misleading in terms of preparing for Mt. D. It's unlikely we'll have a giant sun shade for the race like we did today!

Note: Weather stations on Mt. Wilson and at Clear Creek can be used to get an idea of what temperatures are running in the vicinity of the race course. Note that the temeprature specified is measured in the shade. In my experience the "fuel temperature" is a better indicator of the temperature in the sun. The fuel temperature is included in the Clear Creek listing.

Some related posts: Mt. Disappointment 50K 2011 Training Run, Mt. Disappointment 50K 2010 Notes

Was looking to get in a short run this morning and decided to check if any Humboldt lilies were blooming in Upper Las Virgenes Canyon.

The last time I'd seen Humboldt lilies bloom here was June 2006, following an unusually wet Spring and a two year period in which Downtown Los Angeles recorded 50+ inches of rain. 

This Spring some months were wet and some months were dry, but December 2010 was the wettest in Los Angeles in 121 years. Add to the mix that the last two water years Los Angeles recorded above average rainfall, and it seemed there was a pretty good chance the Upper Las Virgenes Canyon lilies would be in bloom.

I'd seen lily stalks in other areas in recent weeks, and some blooming Humboldt lilies in the San Gabriel Mountains, but when I checked Upper Las Virgenes Canyon in early May, there had been none. But today there was -- right in the middle of thorny patch of blackberry bushes.

Also blooming in the canyon were California wild rose and the non-native plant moth mullein -- so named because of the similarity of the flower's anthers to the fuzzy appearing antennae of a moth.

Related post: Humboldt Lily