With little new growth this Spring and Summer, coyote paths at Ahmanson Ranch have become so well worn that several have recently been posted with "Restoration Area - Please Keep Out" signs. Whether the canny coyotes will choose to cooperate remains to be seen.

Note: Ahmanson Ranch was acquired as open space in part to protect several sensitive species and their habitats. Some (human) use trails have evolved and "Restoration Area - Please Keep Out" signs are a reminder that the area is a preserve.

From a recent run at Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve (formerly Ahmanson Ranch).

Related post: Trickster

 
Ridge between Mt. Baden-Powell and Mt. Burnham

Standing on the summit of Mt. Baden-Powell (9399'), I squinted through the haze at Mt. Baldy (10,064'). Nope, no snow. It's not often that the highest elevations of the San Gabriel Mountains are snowless on Memorial Day weekend. If nowhere else, there will usually be a patch of white on the north side of Mt. Baldy.

Blue oak (Quercus douglasii) is a characteristic oak of the lower elevations of the Sierra foothills and coastal mountains, its range essentially encircling California's Central Valley.

Based on its reported range, Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve (formerly Ahmanson Ranch) contains one of the southernmost populations of blue oak within its range. However, the predominate deciduous oak in the area is valley oak (Quercus lobata), and occurrences of blue oak appear to be rare. Regional climate modeling suggests that over the next century the range of blue oak could shift northward and diminish to nearly 60% of its current range.

Blue oak is reported to hybridize with valley oak, however a 2005 study suggests hybrids of these species may be more rare than generally accepted.

The photograph of the leaves of a blue oak was taken on a run along East Las Virgenes Canyon to Lasky Mesa on April 24, 2007. A valley oak immediately adjacent to this blue oak was killed in the 2005 Topanga Fire.

Related posts: Valley Oak Savannah, Laskey Mesa Oak

Technical papers:

Modeled regional climate change and California endemic oak ranges.
Kueppers, L.M., M.A. Snyder, L.C. Sloan, E.S. Zavaleta, and Brian Fulfrost. 2005. 
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102(45): 16281 – 16286.

Limited hybridization between Quercus lobata and Quercus douglasii (Fagaceae) in a mixed stand in central coastal California.
Kathleen J. Craft, Mary V. Ashley and Walter D. Koenig.
American Journal of Botany. 2002;89:1792-1798.

This photograph of goldfields (Lasthenia spp.) was taken on a run on Lasky Mesa in Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve almost exactly one year ago. This April I haven't seen any goldfields on Lasky Mesa. The soil is too dry for the seeds to germinate. The drought in Southern California has suppressed or delayed the growth of these, and many other species of wildflowers.

We received a little rain in the Los Angeles area earlier this week. There was just enough light rain to dampen my shirt, muddy my running shoes, and ornament this web with droplets of water. Refreshing as it was, the precipitation did little to relieve our ongoing drought.

Two runners climb up the last yards of a hill before descending into Las Virgenes Canyon in Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve.

The trail is a connector that joins East Las Virgenes Canyon with upper Las Virgenes Canyon. Our 15 mile loop started at the Victory trailhead, following the El Scorpion Trail to another long-used trail that climbs up to the ridge along the northern boundary of the preserve. From here we descended to Las Virgenes Canyon and worked over to Shepherd's Flat and down Cheeseboro Canyon, eventually returning to the Victory trailhead by way of the main drag.

The area seen in the photograph is a small portion of the 24,000 acres that was burned in the Topanga Fire in late September 2005.

Although an undercoat of green is apparent, the drought in Southern California continues. According to NWS climate data, as of today, Downtown Los Angeles (USC) has recorded only 2.42 inches of rain since the water year began on July 1, 2006. This total is nearly 9 inches less than normal.

As evidenced by their survival, native plants are generally well adapted to the environment in which they live. Fire, flood, drought, heat or cold, they've seen it all – or nearly so.

Sporadic rain in the Los Angeles area has finally produced a little green in local open space areas. Here, along the margins of the "main drag" in Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve (formerly Ahmanson Ranch).

As of today, (preliminary) NWS climate data indicates Downtown Los Angeles (USC) has recorded 1.92 inches of rain since July 1. This is 7.31 inches below normal. Leafing back through weather service data prior to July 1, this is the total rainfall recorded since May 22, 2006 – a period of nearly nine months.

What happened to our El Nino rains? According to NWS scientist Ed Berry, "the global circulation has been generally La-Nina like since about late November." This is despite an El Nino event that peaked in November or December, and persisted at moderate strength into January. See his blog Atmospheric Insights for the technical details.

A period of unsettled – possibly showery – weather is forecast for the Los Angeles area beginning Sunday evening and continuing pretty much through the week. At the moment* the best chance for measurable rain appears to be on Monday and Thursday. We'll see!

*Updated Saturday, February 17, at about 11:00 a.m.

Related posts: The Color of Rain, El Nino Drought, Sunset Snow Shower, Rainy Morning on Rocky Peak Road.

It was nice to start a run in the rain and see a few mud puddles along the way! Southern California has had so little rain the last several months that any rain is something to celebrate. Since the start of the water year on July 1, the official weather station for Los Angeles at USC has recorded only 1.48 inches of rain. This is more than 5 inches below normal for the date, and depending on the rain received the next three days, the July 1 to January 31 rainfall total could be the 5th driest since recordkeeping began in 1877. (Downtown Los Angeles recorded only 0.02 inch over the three days, and according to a NWS statement issued February 1, July 1 to January 31 was the 5th driest on record.)

Unless you are particularly fond of mud, Rocky Peak Road is usually a good choice for a run if it's raining, or has rained recently. Perched on a ridge on the border between Los Angeles and Ventura counties in Rocky Peak Park, its sandy soils are generally well drained. Except for a few short sections of road, mud isn't too much of an issue unless you run beyond "fossil point," the high point of the road at about mile 4.8. Here there is an outcrop of fossil scallop shells.

Related posts: San Fernando Valley from Rocky Peak, Chumash-Las Llajas Loop, Sunset Snow Shower

When I heard the news reports of snow in the Santa Monica Mountains along Kanan-Dume road near Malibu, I hoped to find a little snow or hail up at Sage Ranch Park on my afternoon run.

The isolated snow showers, hail and sleet were produced by convective cells that developed as a result of instability associated with a passing upper level low. Some of these cells also generated some lightning and thunder.

There was no snow on the ground at Sage Ranch, but the low angle rays of the setting sun did highlight a snow shower over the Rocky Peak Park area. In March of last year there was snow at Sage Ranch and Rocky Peak.

Related posts: Chumash Trail Snow, Oat Mountain Snow, San Fernando Valley from Rocky Peak.

The open space areas in which I run would normally be lush and green by this time of year, particularly when there is an El Niño. But in the past 231 days (including today) the official weather station for Los Angeles has recorded only 1.31 inches of rain, and the hills remain a dank sun bleached gray-brown.

Glistening in the morning sun, the wet trunk of a manzanita glows in iridescent shades of orange and red, pink and purple. Decorated with raindrops, the chaparral, and all within, breathe a deep sigh of relief. It has rained!

Prior to Saturday night's storm Los Angeles had recorded only 0.5 inch of rain in the last six months. Even by Southern California's arid standards, this is a meager amount.

Usually when there's an El Niño, wet Winter weather can be expected to develop in Southern California. But this year's El Niño has been a little quirky, developing later than usual, and becoming stronger than expected. So far this Autumn, the weather here has been somewhat quirky as well, with record setting high temperatures and below average rainfall. An El Niño, even a strong one, does not guarantee wet weather in our area. Whether or not the usual El Niño impacts eventually develop, we'll just have to see.

Another system is expected to produce some rain in Southern California this weekend, but in the last couple of days the computer weather models have been backing off the rainfall amounts. This morning's computer-based precipitation forecasts are nearly dry. Given the difficulty the models have had with this system, and the long fetch of moisture over the Pacific, maybe the forecast will change. For additional info about the El Niño and Southern California weather, check out my Southern California Weathernotes web site.

The manzanita photograph is from the Reseda to Trippet Ranch run described in my previous post, Musch Trail Mule Deer.