If you spend much time in the mountains, sooner or later you're going to get caught in a severe thunderstorm. I don't mean you're going to hear a little thunder and get a little wet. I mean you're going to find yourself in the middle of a heart pounding, ear splitting, ozone smelling, sense numbing storm that drenches you through and through and wrings the nerves from your body.

Having been caught in such thunderstorms while climbing in Yosemite, running in the San Gabriels, and running at Mt. Pinos, I do my best to avoid the beasts. Sometimes, it is not an easy thing to do.

We were making good progress up the gargantuan north face of University Peak (13,632'), climbing carefully and doing our best not to knock loose rocks down on each other's heads. We were also doing our best to ignore the gathering clouds -- and the unnerving rumble of distant thunder.

Yes, it would have been better to sleep at the trailhead and get an early start. Especially with a 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms in the forecast. But we didn't. When we should have been taking our first steps on the Kearsarge Pass trail we were eating breakfast burritos in Mojave. So it goes.

Now we were about half way up the 2200' class 2-3 face, and it would take another hour of climbing to reach the summit. That would put us on the summit right around the time of maximum daytime heating -- a bad time to top out if you're trying to avoid a thunderstorm.

Off to the northwest there was another long, rolling, rumble of thunder. Streamers of rain could be seen twining from darkening clouds. Smoke from one or more of California's many fires hung in the valleys to the west of the crest, producing an unnatural and eerie mixture of clouds, smoke, rain, and orange tinted terrain.

We paused in a jumble of broken blocks of granite, hemming and hawing, and otherwise hesitating to make THE decision to descend. Avoiding the issue and pondering the sky, we wondered which fire the smoke was coming from, and -- half in jest -- whether the smoke could have seeded and enhanced the thunderstorm we were watching. Those questions, it turns out, had surprising answers.

Mammoth Mountain reports more than a foot of snow fell over the Memorial Day weekend, but that translated to cool, puffy white clouds and blue sky weather in the Los Angeles area, seldom seen this late in May.

Taking advantage of the great weather, on Sunday my son and I ran the Garapito figure eight course in Topanga State Park, doing a slight variation that climbed Eagle Rock, before descending the Garapito Trail.

Gov. Schwarzenegger's revised state budget, released May 14, rescinded the funding cuts that would have resulted in the closing of 48 California state parks, including Topanga State Park. For now it appears these state parks will remain open. For more information see the Save Our State Parks and Campaign To Save Topanga State Park web sites.

Related post: California State Park Closures

When considering where I might run this weekend, the words "snow" and "altitude" had a certain appeal. Record high temperatures had been set in the Los Angeles area on Friday and Saturday, and there was little doubt that more temperature records would fall today.

The greens of Southern California's rain season have given way to the sun burnished colors of Summer.

Increasing temperatures over the next few days should also result in an increase in rattlesnake encounters, such as this one today on the "main drag" at Ahmanson Ranch (Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve).

Note: Jon Sutherland nicknamed the main road that connects the Victory trailhead to Las Virgenes Canyon the "main drag." Jon has run out at Ahmanson for more than 30 years. He is second on the Running Streak List for most consecutive days run. As of March 1, 2008 his streak was 14,160 consecutive days (38 years 281 days)!

Related posts: Southern California Greenscape

It's been late February since Southern California has had a good soaking rain. As of May 1, the water year rainfall total for Downtown Los Angeles (USC) stands at 13.42 inches. This is 90% of the 1921-2006 average of 14.87 inches. According to the NWS 1921-2006 dataset, the average amount of precipitation in May and June is 0.3 inch and 0.1 inch, respectively. We'll see if we get that much this year!

La Niña appears to be winding down.  In it's April 30 ENSO Wrap-Up, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology characterizes Pacific climate patterns as being generally neutral, "with the majority of indicators returning to near-normal levels." The April 28 ENSO Update from the CPC suggests that La Niña will continue through May-July 2008, but many of the factors discussed indicate general weakening of La Niña. Based on the ONI and MEI, La Nina conditions have existed since about August of 2007.

The photograph of the sun-parched mustard leaf is from a run at Ahmanson Ranch on April 29, 2008.

Technorati Tags: la nina, Los Angeles weather

The beauty and intensity of the day was infectious. Hours before a cold low pressure trough digging down from the Pacific Northwest had carried showers, thunder, hail, and chilly temps into Southern California. Its rainfall had refreshed the greens of the hills, and accentuated the yellows, purples and reds of the wildflowers along the trail. Its blustery winds had cleansed the sky.

A few minutes before I had completed one run, and now was starting another. I wasn't certain how much farther I would run -- I just knew I had to run.

The day had begun with friends on the Secret Trail in Calabasas. We had run up and over the shoulder of Calabasas Peak, and then ascended Saddle Peak via the Stunt High Trail and Backbone Trail. The view from the summit of Saddle Peak had extended beyond Santa Monica Bay and Palos Verdes Peninsula to the South Bay and Saddleback Mountain. New snow glistened on Mt. Baldy, and to the west the rocky summits on Boney Mountain stood in bold relief.

That 14.5 mile run had ended at Tapia Park. Now I was on the Tapia Spur Trail on the first climb of the Bulldog Loop. On the wind sheltered slope the bright yellow blossoms of tree poppy had begun to unfurl, absorbing the warmth of the midday sun. Distant peaks loomed to within an arm's reach, and my legs seemed to draw energy directly from the trail. It was a long run kind of day.

Notes: The title photograph is of Saddle Peak from the Backbone Trail, in the Santa Monica Mountains, near Los Angeles. Mt. Baldy can be seen in the distance. The combined length of the runs was about 29 miles with an elevation gain of about 5000 ft.

Some related posts: Tapia Bound, Bulldog Loop and the Corral Fire, Fog Along Malibu Creek

This photograph of downtown Los Angeles and Century City was taken Sunday morning from the Backbone Trail in Topanga State Park while doing the Will Rogers - Temescal Loop from the "end of Reseda" in the San Fernando Valley.

At the time an offshore wind was scouring out low-lying fog trapped in the Los Angeles basin by a low altitude temperature inversion.

Related posts: California State Park Closures, Will Rogers - Temescal Loop

Southern California can have inclement Winter weather. This January downtown Los Angeles experienced a streak with 8 days of measurable rain, and last year temperatures in the suburbs plunged to a frigid 20°F. Maybe this doesn't compare to Seattle's 2005-2006 rain streak of 27 days, or International Falls' recent record low of 40° below zero, but it qualifies as rainy and cold none the less.

Today it was not rainy and cold. It was just about as pleasant as a day could be. Skies were blue, winds were light, and the temperature was in the mid-seventies. Starting at the Wendy Dr. trailhead on Potrero Rd., we enjoyed the perfect weather by doing a 14.5 mile variant of the Boney Mountain Half Marathon Course.

The photograph above is of the Hidden Pond Trail near Hidden Pond -- recently restored by Winter rains.

Related posts: Boney Mountain Half Marathon, Big Sycamore Canyon Circuit, Boney Mountain - Big Sycamore Canyon Circuit

It's about time -- all the rain in Southern California is finally turning our hills green! Last year the hills of East Las Virgenes Canyon were sun bleached and rain starved.

According to preliminary NWS data, Downtown Los Angeles (USC) recorded measurable rain on each day from January 21 to January 28, 2008. Based on this NWS ranking for 1921-2006, this puts this eight day period in the top six of the station's wettest streaks from 1921-2007.

So far this water year Downtown Los Angeles has recorded 11.73 inches of rain, which is 4.77 inches above normal. Last year on this date Los Angeles had recorded only 1.5 inches of rain. Even if Los Angeles were to receive no rain through the entire month of February (not likely), we would still go into the month of March ahead of normal.

The photograph is from a muddy run at Ahmanson Ranch -- now Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve.

Ran Rocky Peak road both days last weekend. Saturday's outing was a 7.3 mile rainy day run out to the Chumash Trail junction and back. Sunday's was a little longer, about 9.3 miles -- past the Chumash Trail junction to the highpoint on the road sometimes referred to as "the fossils."

The photograph of Simi Valley was taken on Sunday afternoon, just after turning around to head back. The wind was blowing in fitful gusts, and a gray wall of rain loomed to the west. It wasn't raining yet, but the trailhead at Santa Susana Pass was about 50 minutes away, and there was a feeling things were going to get very wet, very soon.

Over the weekend the west coast was slammed by a series of storms that increased the water year rainfall total at Downtown Los Angeles to an inch above normal and the Sierra snow pack from 60% of normal to over 100%.

So far this rain season, Southern California has dodged a La Nina bullet. This AHPS Precipitation Analysis for the water year indicates much of the area has received near normal to above normal precipitation.

Will Southern California rainfall remain near normal? The Climate Prediction Center's precipitation outlook for Jan-Feb-Mar (issued Dec. 20), the ERSL/PSD Nov-Mar La Nina precipitation composite, and most other longer range forecast tools say no.

On the other hand... the base state of the atmospheric circulation remains more or less what it has been the past several months, so it doesn't seem unreasonable to suggest that our pattern of near normal rainfall might continue.

The current NWS 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks project below normal for Southern California, but there are some hints that a system with a lower latitude track could affect the area near the end of the 14 day period. We'll see!

Note: The ESRL/PSD Composite ENSO plots page was updated yesterday to correct an issue that resulted in the wrong set of years being used for its Winter La Nina composites. As a result the La Nina composite precipitation map in this post is drier in coastal Southern California than in the map originally published in the post Southern California 2007-2008 Winter Precipitation Outlook.

Wow, it was windy! I was on an exposed ridge between Tri-Peaks and Big Dome, getting pushed around by a unrelenting offshore wind, trying to keep my footing, and take a few photos. About the time I was traversing the ridge, Laguna Peak -- the peak in the photograph with all the communications equipment on its summit-- recorded a gust of 67 mph.

But this is a mere breeze by Laguna Peak standards. A communication facility operated by the U.S. Navy, the weather station has recorded hurricane force winds on numerous occasions. Several of the wind events listed in the NWS document A History of Significant Weather Events in Southern California reference Laguna Peak. In March of 1991 a gust of 125 mph was recorded at the peak.

Update 12/25/07. Merry Christmas! This morning, about 6:15, Laguna Peak recorded a wind gust of 91.8 mph and several gusts in excess of 85 mph. Between 10:00 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. several gusts over 90 mph were recorded, including one measured at 91.9 mph.

La Jolla Valley is the small valley just below Laguna Peak. Isolated and scenic, it is a "must do" hike or run that can be accessed from the Ray Miller trailhead on PCH, or from Big Sycamore Canyon.

The peak on the left in this wider 16:9 format view is Mugu Peak. Its summit overlooks Pt. Mugu and is a relatively short side trip from the Mugu Trail.

Offshore, two of the Channel Islands can be seen -- Anacapa (left) and Santa Cruz.