Ran Rocky Peak road both days last weekend. Saturday's outing was a 7.3 mile rainy day run out to the Chumash Trail junction and back. Sunday's was a little longer, about 9.3 miles -- past the Chumash Trail junction to the highpoint on the road sometimes referred to as "the fossils."

The photograph of Simi Valley was taken on Sunday afternoon, just after turning around to head back. The wind was blowing in fitful gusts, and a gray wall of rain loomed to the west. It wasn't raining yet, but the trailhead at Santa Susana Pass was about 50 minutes away, and there was a feeling things were going to get very wet, very soon.

Over the weekend the west coast was slammed by a series of storms that increased the water year rainfall total at Downtown Los Angeles to an inch above normal and the Sierra snow pack from 60% of normal to over 100%.

So far this rain season, Southern California has dodged a La Nina bullet. This AHPS Precipitation Analysis for the water year indicates much of the area has received near normal to above normal precipitation.

Will Southern California rainfall remain near normal? The Climate Prediction Center's precipitation outlook for Jan-Feb-Mar (issued Dec. 20), the ERSL/PSD Nov-Mar La Nina precipitation composite, and most other longer range forecast tools say no.

On the other hand... the base state of the atmospheric circulation remains more or less what it has been the past several months, so it doesn't seem unreasonable to suggest that our pattern of near normal rainfall might continue.

The current NWS 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks project below normal for Southern California, but there are some hints that a system with a lower latitude track could affect the area near the end of the 14 day period. We'll see!

Note: The ESRL/PSD Composite ENSO plots page was updated yesterday to correct an issue that resulted in the wrong set of years being used for its Winter La Nina composites. As a result the La Nina composite precipitation map in this post is drier in coastal Southern California than in the map originally published in the post Southern California 2007-2008 Winter Precipitation Outlook.

Quiet and cold, the fog enveloped the sycamore trees along the creek and wrapped my thoughts and footfalls in a chilling shroud. I had just started the Bulldog loop and was running along a frosty road in Tapia Park. Suddenly there was a rustle and a blur of brown. Two deer darted in opposite directions. One ran toward the creek, stopping about 50 yards away. The other crossed the road in front of me, stopped at its margin, and from a distance of about 15 feet, calmly watched me run past.

View northwest to the Ventura Mountains from the Chumash Trail. The highest peak on the skyline is Hines Peak (6716'), about 28 miles distant. Here's a larger version of the 16:9 format image. Note the hawk soaring high above the terrain.

I run the Chumash Trail frequently, but had not seen the bulldozed track on the steep slope near the start of the trail. The trail hasn't been re-routed. Apparently on the 13th a 4WD truck that was part of a fire department response to a cycling accident got stuck, and a bulldozer was called in to extricate the vehicle. I've been told the Park District and Mountains Conservancy are considering next steps.

I liked last weekend's run so much that this morning I returned to the Wendy Drive trailhead on Potrero Road and was now chugging up the Danielson-Old Boney trail, planning to do another circuit that would eventually take me back down into Big Sycamore Canyon.

Those of us in the northern hemisphere that enjoy afternoon daylight are celebrating the passing of the dank days of Autumn when sunset occurs the earliest in the day. Depending on your location, the amount of afternoon daylight may already be increasing -- be it ever so modest.

According to the Astronomical Applications Dept. of the U. S. Naval Observatory, in Los Angeles that day is today, December 11, when the sunset shifts from 4:44 p.m. to 4:45 p.m.

The more northerly your latitude, the later the date. In Miami it was back on December 4, and in Seattle it will be on December 18. In Anchorage it won't be until December 20. Barrow, Alaska won't see a sunset (or sunrise) until January 23!

You can check your city's sunset times using the USNO Sun or Moon Rise/Set Table.

I was about a mile from the Wendy Dr. trailhead on Potrero Rd. in Newbury Park. A cold wind ruffled the chaparral, and to the north snow could be seen on McDonald Peak (6870') and other peaks of the Ventura mountains. I was nearing the top of a rounded ridge in Rancho Sierra Vista/Satwiwa, and in a few minutes would be descending the sun-warmed Old Boney Trail into the upper reaches of Big Sycamore Canyon.

The temp was in the 30's and it took a couple of minutes for my car's engine to warm enough to thaw the coating of ice on the windshield. I was headed for a run in the San Gabriel Mountains and was wondering how cold it might be.

Due to fire concerns, Los Padres, Angeles, Cleveland and San Bernardino National Forests remained closed this weekend, so I headed back up to Kernville to meet some friends and run the Whiskey Flat Trail -- a sizzling trail in the summertime that has been on my running to-do list for years.

The numerous interconnecting roads and trails of the eastern Santa Monica Mountains can be combined to create trail runs ranging from a few miles to marathon length or more.

Los Angeles sometimes gets rain in September, but usually it is the result of tropical moisture from a dissipating hurricane, or perhaps the passage of the tail end of a weakening front. It is rare to see a low as cold, deep and energetic as the upper level low that deluged many areas of Los Angeles county Friday afternoon into Saturday.

Thunderstorms raked the San Fernando Valley Friday night, and several locations in and around the Valley recorded more than an inch of rain over the course of the storm. Los Angeles set a new rainfall record on Saturday, recording 0.40 inch of rain, and rainfall records were broken across the area.

In Southern California the first rain of the season often doesn't occur until October or November and is always savored. Especially this year, when Los Angeles has recorded only 3.21 inches of rain in the last 15 or 16 months, and a developing La Nina threatens to put the kibosh on Winter rain.

I celebrated the rain by doing an out and back run to "Fossil Point" on Rocky Peak fire road. Based on the size of the mud puddles on the dirt road, this unseasonable storm appeared to be wetter than any in last year's record dry rain season. Here's a panorama of the view northwest from the fire road to Oak Ridge, the Santa Susana Mountains and beyond.

Some related posts: San Fernando Valley from Rocky Peak, Rainy Morning on Rocky Peak Road.

Update 7/26/08. There have been recent USB driver (4-28-08) and firmware (5-07-08) updates, and the PC software has been replaced (7-04-08), but the most significant change is that SportTracks now supports the GH615 via a plugin. Since I use SportTracks I have not looked closely at the new "g-Sports PC Utility" software, but it appears to be more functional than the original "PC Utility" software. Some significant quirks remain. When the GH615B is set to STATUTE(ft, mph) units, the elevation still displays in miles -- e.g. 1.702 miles instead of 8987 ft.

Update 9/10/07. Shortly after writing this post I learned that the GH-615B has been discontinued in the U.S. in favor of the GH-615M, which includes a heart rate monitor.

Chugging up Mt. Baden-Powell, I pushed various buttons on the GlobalSat GH615B, searching for the screen that displays elevation. I had seen it on a run during the week, and now I couldn't find it. Wait... What? My elevation is 1.702 MILES??

When my Forerunner 205 had to be returned to Garmin a second time, it seemed like a good time to see if there were any new GPS-based running watches I could use for tracing the routes of my trail runs. The description of the GH615B on the GlobalSat web site looked promising. Like the Forerunner 205/305 it had a watch-like design, and the specs said it also used the newer, more sensitive, SiRFstarIII GPS technology.

Despite an ongoing heat wave and excessive heat warnings, temps were surprisingly moderate for the 42nd running of the Mt. Baldy Run to the Top race. This year the men's overall winner was Eric Martin in a time of 1:10:04, and the women's overall winner was Brigid Freyne in a time of 1:30:41. For all of the results see the Run to the Top web site. Many thanks to the race organizers, volunteers, USFS, Mt Baldy Ski Lifts and the Mt. Baldy Fire Department for a great race!

Here are a few images from the race (Flash 8 required), a Google Earth image and Google Earth KMZ file (updated) of a GPS trace of the route.

Related post: Mt. Baldy Runner