Rain brings out the richness of the chaparral, enlivening its inhabitants, enhancing its colors, and enriching its fragrances. But in recent weeks rain storms have been few and rainfall far below normal.

The 2011-2012 rain season started out well enough. Thanksgiving Day the water year rainfall total for Downtown Los Angeles (USC) was about an inch above normal. But between Thanksgiving and Christmas the drier weather often associated with La Nina conditions became predominant, and water year totals dropped to about normal.

Northern and Central California were actually much drier than would be expected during a La Nina. Mammoth Mountain recorded no new snow between December 5 and January 19 -- about a month and a half! Our dry spell was nearly as long. Downtown Los Angeles recorded no measurable rain between December 17 and January 21.

The storms Saturday and Monday added about 1.3 inches of rain, boosting the water year rainfall total to 5.06 inches. As of yesterday this was 1.87 inches below normal and about 73% of the normal total.

The problem is this time of year we fall behind another 0.12 to 0.15 inch every day that it doesn't rain. The deficit adds up quickly and if -- as the medium range models currently project -- we don't get any rain for the next 10 days we'll down another inch and at about 64% of normal. We'll see!

The photograph of the Ceanothus trunk is from last Sunday's Will Rogers - Temescal loop trail run.

Related posts: The Color of Rain II, The Color of Rain

These valley oaks have dropped their leaves, but if you were to go by the warm temperatures we've been having in Southern California, you might think it was Summer.

Including today, the high temperature at Pierce College in Woodland Hills, California has reached into the 80s each of the last six days. High temperature records for December 31 - January 5 have been broken at several locations. Among the records broken, yesterday San Gabriel recorded a high of 91, Camarillo 90, and UCLA 89.

It sounds sweltering, and it can be if you're in full sun, but it's not like a 90 degree day in July. Days are short, shadows long, and some north-facing slopes never see the sun. And it does cool down quickly. If you take a look at the overnight lows on those six 80+ days at Pierce College, you'll see the temperature dropped to around 40-42 degrees.

On my run Tuesday afternoon, when the photograph of the valley oaks was taken, the temperature varied by as much as 20-25 degrees between some high and low points.

It has been great weather for running, but I'm ready for a change in the pattern and a little rain!

Spotted these unusual clouds while running in Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve today. Better known as Ahmanson Ranch, the open space area is on the western margin of the San Fernando Valley, northwest of Los Angeles.

The clouds were strikingly similar to clouds I'd photographed last January following the development and dissipation of a band of mid-level mammatus clouds over the San Fernando Valley. As before, the clouds were round-bottomed and were ragged with virga.

Upper air charts and model analyses indicated the clouds were at an altitude of about 20K-25K, and were associated with a very small scale upper level disturbance.

Here's a wider view of the clouds.

Related post: Mammatus Clouds Over the San Fernando Valley, More posts...

What a difference a week makes! Last week an unseasonably deep upper level low, unusually strong 170+ kt Pacific jet, and associated cold front combined to produce record-setting rainfall and cool temperatures in Southern California. This week high pressure and a weak offshore flow produced triple digit temperatures in some areas and set new high temperature records Wednesday in Downtown Los Angeles, Long Beach and Santa Barbara.

Which pattern is more likely this rain season? Will Southern California tend to be drier like this week, or wetter like last week and last year? Despite last year's wet rain season, wet La Nina Winters are not the norm. Generally, La Nina conditions result in drier than normal rain seasons in Southern California, and El Nino wetter.

Following a Summer respite La Nina conditions have reemerged in the equatorial Pacific, and appear to be consolidating. Equatorial SST anomalies have continued to decrease and now range from -1.5°C at 100°W to -0.5°C at 170°E. Equatorial Pacific temperature cross sections show substantial subsurface cooling from July 11 to September 11. The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) has dropped from -0.5 for July/August to -0.8 for the August/September season. This drops the MEI from a rank of 16th for July/August to 13th for August/September since 1950. This is well within La Nina territory but weaker than last year's rank of 1st for August/September.

A precipitation composite for seven years* since 1950 in which La Nina conditions persisted or reemerged in the year following a first year La Nina indicates that "on average" the coastal Southern California climate division recorded about 5 to 6 inches less precipitation than normal for the period November through March. The percent of normal water year rainfall recorded at Downtown Los Angeles (USC) ranged from a low of 47% (1971, 7.17"), to a high of 106% (1955, 16.00"). The average rainfall for these years was 70.5%, or 10.7".

We'll get the official NOAA/CPC outlooks next week around October 20, when CPC's Three-Month Precipitation Outlooks and NOAA Winter Outlook are expected to be released.

*The years included in the selection were 1950-51, 1955-56, 1962-63, 1971-72, 1974-75, 1999-2000 and 2008-09. The base period was 1971-2000. The selection was based on the MEI.

The viewpoint above is a few hundred yards up the Pacific Crest Trail from Angeles Crest Highway at Inspiration Point. Craig and I had paused near the start of our trail run from Inspiration Point to Islip Saddle to check out the view. 

The mountain across the way is Mt. Baden-Powell (9,399').  Three miles away as the bird flies, our earthbound route along Blue Ridge, down to Vincent Gap, and then up the forty-something switchbacks to the top of the peak would total around nine miles. From the top of the peak it would be about eight miles to Islip Saddle.

Zooming in on the peak, the white arrow marks the location of the Wally Waldron Lodgepole Pine. For more than a millennia this grand tree has stood high on this mountain, resisting the strongest of winds and the most perfect of storms. Not all are so durable. A lodgepole pine feet away from the Wally Waldron tree was toppled in a storm last Winter.

Given the short-sleeve weather, the most unexpected discovery on today's run was ice under the trees just up the ridge from the Wally Waldron tree. The ice had been deposited on the trees a few days before, when an unseasonably strong storm set a new rainfall record for the date in Los Angeles.

The running on the PCT between Mt. Baden-Powell and Islip Saddle was outstanding and the views superb. Along the way we did the short climb to the top of Throop Peak, checked out the Mt. Hawkins Lightning Tree, and enjoyed the cold spring water at Little Jimmy Spring.

Some related posts: Perils of Winter, Surprises of Summer; Wally Waldron Lodgepole Pine; PCT from Inspiration Point to Islip Saddle

Somewhere around the junction of the 210 and 605 I saw a flash of lightning to the south. As if the flash had been a warning, a gust of wind buffeted my car, and a blizzard of dust and debris blew across the freeway. Then it started to rain. Not good -- especially when you're on your way to a race that ends on top of a 10,000' mountain.

The Cottonwood Pass - New Army Pass loop is a longtime favorite that I try to do at least once a year. There's nothing quite like running at 11,000' through a forest of gnarled foxtail pines -- some perhaps a thousand years old -- then working up a glacier sculpted basin to one of the higher passes on the Sierra crest.

The trail run is the closest high altitude loop to Los Angeles that is almost entirely over 10,000'. Although its 21 mile length and 3400 'elevation gain/loss appear relatively moderate from an ultrarunning perspective, keep in mind it is a high mountain run that reaches an elevation of 12,300', and includes 12 miles that are over 11,000'. Nearly three miles are above tree line. It's kind of like driving to the top of Mt. Baldy and then starting your run from there.

This year a record-setting snowpack pushed back the date the loop could be done (as a trail run) to late July. I'd hoped to do it two weeks before the Mt. Disappointment 50K, but thunderstorms and flash floods quashed that plan. The next opportunity to do the loop was on Saturday, but once again thunderstorms were in the forecast.

A look at the SWFRS Bald Mountain #5 web cam midday Saturday confirmed the sketchy weather. The camera showed developing clouds from Olancha Peak on the south to New Army Pass, Mt. Langley and Mt. Whitney on the north. We wanted to enjoy the run in short-sleeves and shorts, so postponed the run to today.

And today the weather was perfect! A plus was that Saturday's rain had dampened the sometimes sandy and dusty trails, improving their condition and refreshing the landscape.

One of the interesting aspects of the run was that patches of snow remained from last Winter's heavy snowpack. Not only were there patches of snow on New Army Pass, and elsewhere above 12,000', but there was snow in lower, more exposed locations such as on the southeast-facing slopes above Chicken Spring Lake. Much of this high altitude snow will carryover into this Winter.

Here's a Google Earth browser view and elevation profile of a GPS trace of the loop. The view can be zoomed, tilted, panned, etc. Additional info, a slide show, and more photos are available in previous posts about this loop.

Some related posts: Cottonwood - New Army Pass Trail Run, Cottonwood - New Army Pass Loop, Mt. Langley in a Day from L.A., Climate Change and the Southern Foxtail Pine

Running along Coyote Ridge in the Marin Headlands.

NPS maps of the Marin Headlands and the Presidio can be downloaded from the NPS Golden Gate National Recreation Area Maps page.

It was great to be cold. Cold instead of hot. Wishing I had gloves. The wind, chill and mist. So different than chugging up Edison Road...

Runners on Edison Road During a Recent Training Run

No matter if you run at the front, middle, or back of the pack, there's the race you plan, and the race you run.

Based on the course info, it looked like the 7th edition of the Mt. Disappointment 50K was going to be more difficult than in 2009 and 2010, adding both mileage and elevation gain. Because of the closure of Mueller Tunnel and the damage done by the Station Fire and subsequent floods, we still wouldn't be running up and over the shoulder of Mt. Disappointment, or down to Clear Creek and around Strawberry Peak, but the 2011 course would make up for that with its own very memorable sections.

To try and cope with the difficulties of the course, I'd put in extra miles and done more back to back Saturday-Sunday runs. But in one of those uh-oh moments a couple of miles into the race, I could feel in my legs that I was probably going to need to adjust my expectations. I wasn't injured. I wasn't getting over a cold or flu. My stomach wasn't upset. I felt pretty good. But there was this nagging bit of fatigue in my legs...

The new wrinkle for 2011 was that we turned off Mt. Wilson Road half-way to Red Box and ran down the Valley Forge Trail. In a training run a few weeks before the race, the Valley Forge Trail had been an obstacle course overgrown with Turricula. Trail work by Hilliard, Rowlan & Company had restored the trail, and today it was in great shape. Here's an interactive Google Earth browser view of the 2011 course and the courses in previous years, and an elevation profile of the 2011 course.

At the bottom of the Valley Forge we turned onto the Gabrieleno Trail, and started up the canyon of the West Fork toward Red Box-Rincon Road. The change in grade from level to uphill confirmed it. I stepped aside so two running friends could pass. Maybe it was a tapering or over-training issue, or maybe it was just "one of those days." Whatever, the legs were just not cooperating. 

The irony is, this was probably a good thing. The day turned out to be the hottest of any Mt. Disappointment race to date. The lurking leg fatigue forced me to not push the pace, which made dealing with the temperature easier.

And hot it was! The forecast had looked decent just two days before the race, but Friday temperatures exploded in the mountains, jumping 10-12 degrees in 24 hours. The hot temps on Friday carried over into Saturday, making race day just that much warmer. 

Here are the race day temperatures at Clear Creek and Chilao for 2005-2011, and Mt. Wilson for 2009-2011. And these temps are the temperature off the ground and in the shade! A better indication of the temperature in the sun  is the "fuel temperature." This is the temperature of a ponderosa pine dowel in direct sun. Here are plots of the race day fuel temperature at Clear Creek and Chilao for 2005-2011.

Because I wasn't pushing the pace I didn't hesitate to take a little extra time at aid stations. I can still feel that ice cold sponge on the back of my neck, and the cold water running down my back. This year there were numerous small stream crossings, and I think there was at least one small stream between every aid station. This was "free" cooling, and I paused a dozen times to dump water over my head. Thanks to the West Fork San Gabriel River, I was soaked from head to toe for the first steep, sun-baked section of Edison Road. This was also the case on the Silver Moccasin Trail in Shortcut Canyon and on part of Kenyon Devore.

Hot day or not there were some remarkable performances. Heather Fuhr was not only was the first place woman, she was fourth overall and set a new women's course record of 5:07:11. Perennial favorite Jorge Pacheco sped through the tough Mt. Disappointment course in 4:46:29, winning the overall and setting a new course record in the Men's 40-49 Division.

Once again the event was superbly organized by race director Gary Hilliard and the Mt. Disappointment 50K Staff, with the help of an extraordinary group of volunteers, runners, SAR personnel and sponsors. Thank you!

Related post: Mt. Disappointment 50K 2010 Notes

The plan earlier in the week had been to do a day trip to the Sierra Saturday or Sunday and run the Cottonwood - New Army Pass loop, but computer models had shown a monsoonal flow developing, and a look at a satellite image Friday afternoon confirmed the forecast. Friday evening Whitney Portal was hit by a flash flood with water and mud reported up to waist deep in the campground. Runoff from the t-storms was increased by rain melting higher elevation snow, and by the ground already being wet from the prolonged melt of this year's record-setting snowpack.

Computer forecasts indicated thunderstorms would likely continue in the mountains and deserts of Southern California through the weekend. Saturday I ran a few miles in the morning and then around lunchtime checked the weather in the Sierra. Strong thunderstorms had developed in the Southern Sierra, and a flash flood warning had been issued for the eastern slopes of the Sierra in the vicinity of Cottonwood Lakes Basin. Time to switch to plan B.

Plan B was to do a training run on the Mt. Disappointment 50K course. Mt. D is a figure-8 course, where each loop of the eight contributes about 16 miles and 3000' or so of elevation gain/loss. Earlier this July there was a training run from Mt. Wilson on the Valley Forge - West Fork - Kenyon Devore part of the eight. Today we did another part of the figure-8 starting at Shortcut Saddle, running down the Silver Moccasin Trail to West Fork, then up to Newcomb Saddle, and then completed the loop to Shortcut on Edison Road. In the 50K, this loop would start at West Fork, but the sequence of trails would be the same.

Along with the race-ending climb up Kenyon Devore to Mt. Wilson, the climb out from the West Fork San Gabriel River to Shortcut Saddle on Edison Road is one of the more "memorable" sections of the Mt. Disappointment course. At least Kenyon Devore has some shade. Even on a blustery Spring day the 5.5 mile climb up Edison Road (2N23) can be a warm one, and in direct sun in the heat of Summer it can be downright scorching. Not so today -- a layer of monsoon clouds, a fresh breeze, and an occasional drop or two of rain kept the temperature on the ascent disturbingly reasonable.

The run worked out great, but may have been a bit misleading in terms of preparing for Mt. D. It's unlikely we'll have a giant sun shade for the race like we did today!

Note: Weather stations on Mt. Wilson and at Clear Creek can be used to get an idea of what temperatures are running in the vicinity of the race course. Note that the temeprature specified is measured in the shade. In my experience the "fuel temperature" is a better indicator of the temperature in the sun. The fuel temperature is included in the Clear Creek listing.

Some related posts: Mt. Disappointment 50K 2011 Training Run, Mt. Disappointment 50K 2010 Notes

It had been about four months since I'd been to the summit of Mt. San Jacinto. Last time there had been several feet of snow, and the summit had been an inhospitable place with frigid temperatures and buffeting winds. Not so today. Short sleeves and running shorts were the attire of the day, and the weather was more like Malibu Beach than the summit of a 10,000 foot peak.

I was running with Craig Kinard, a long-time backpacker, but relatively new convert to trail running. With the help of Team CrossFit Academy, Craig discovered he likes to run up mountains, and has done well in both the Baldy Run to the Top and Mt. Wilson trail races. Next month he's planning to run his first ultra -- the Mt. Disappointment 50K.

Today we were doing an approximately 20 mile course from Long Valley (8400'), near the top of the Palm Springs Tram, up to San Jacinto Peak (10,834'), then down to the historic Tahquitz Peak Fire Lookout (8,828'). From the Lookout we would return to the Tram by way of Hidden Lake Divide. Totaling about 4000', the ups and downs would be good training for the 6200' of elevation gain in this year's Mt. Disappointment race.

Winter snow translates to Summer water, and its beneficial effects could be seen in everything from the new growth on the chinquapin to the healthy green of the pines. Wellman Cienega was a green wonderland of ferns and corn lily, and near Skunk Cabbage Meadow bright yellow lemon lilies were sprinkled among the bracken and old growth Jeffrey pines. In places western azalea bloomed in profusion, its sweet fragrance mixing with the smells of damp earth and sun-warmed pine needles.

Smoke from the Eagle Fire remained trapped below a strong inversion most of the morning, and for a while views of Tahquitz Peak were crisp and clear. As temps warmed the inversion weakened and there was a flare-up on the Eagle Fire. By the time we reached Tahquitz Peak Lookout, a smoky haze had moved into the area.

At the fire lookout volunteer host Joe Mendoza described the history of the tower and demonstrated the use of the Osborne Fire Finder. Using an earlier sighting he plotted the location of the fire and showed us it was in the vicinity of Warner Hot Springs. He also showed us the "hot seat" used in lightning storms. Thanks Joe!

It was an outstanding run! Here's a Google Earth browser view of a GPS trace of the route, and an elevation profile generated in SportTracks.

Here are a few additional photographs:

Toro & Tahquitz Peaks Near Miller Peak Wellman Cienega

Corn Lily Tahquitz Peak & Rock Near Tahquitz Peak

Some related posts: Room with a View, Autumn Trail Running on Mt. San Jacinto, Mountain Weather