One of the best indicators of seasonal rainfall I've found in the oak woodland and chaparral areas of Southern California in which I run is Elegant Clarkia (Clarkia unguiculata). In a wet year it can grow more than 6 ft. tall. This year it is the shortest I've ever observed -- about 5 inches in this photo taken near Lasky Mesa.

Related posts: Elegant Clarkia, Dealing With Drought

This photograph of goldfields (Lasthenia spp.) was taken on a run on Lasky Mesa in Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve almost exactly one year ago. This April I haven't seen any goldfields on Lasky Mesa. The soil is too dry for the seeds to germinate. The drought in Southern California has suppressed or delayed the growth of these, and many other species of wildflowers.

We received a little rain in the Los Angeles area earlier this week. There was just enough light rain to dampen my shirt, muddy my running shoes, and ornament this web with droplets of water. Refreshing as it was, the precipitation did little to relieve our ongoing drought.

Two runners climb up the last yards of a hill before descending into Las Virgenes Canyon in Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve.

The trail is a connector that joins East Las Virgenes Canyon with upper Las Virgenes Canyon. Our 15 mile loop started at the Victory trailhead, following the El Scorpion Trail to another long-used trail that climbs up to the ridge along the northern boundary of the preserve. From here we descended to Las Virgenes Canyon and worked over to Shepherd's Flat and down Cheeseboro Canyon, eventually returning to the Victory trailhead by way of the main drag.

The area seen in the photograph is a small portion of the 24,000 acres that was burned in the Topanga Fire in late September 2005.

Although an undercoat of green is apparent, the drought in Southern California continues. According to NWS climate data, as of today, Downtown Los Angeles (USC) has recorded only 2.42 inches of rain since the water year began on July 1, 2006. This total is nearly 9 inches less than normal.

As evidenced by their survival, native plants are generally well adapted to the environment in which they live. Fire, flood, drought, heat or cold, they've seen it all – or nearly so.

Sporadic rain in the Los Angeles area has finally produced a little green in local open space areas. Here, along the margins of the "main drag" in Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve (formerly Ahmanson Ranch).

As of today, (preliminary) NWS climate data indicates Downtown Los Angeles (USC) has recorded 1.92 inches of rain since July 1. This is 7.31 inches below normal. Leafing back through weather service data prior to July 1, this is the total rainfall recorded since May 22, 2006 – a period of nearly nine months.

What happened to our El Nino rains? According to NWS scientist Ed Berry, "the global circulation has been generally La-Nina like since about late November." This is despite an El Nino event that peaked in November or December, and persisted at moderate strength into January. See his blog Atmospheric Insights for the technical details.

A period of unsettled – possibly showery – weather is forecast for the Los Angeles area beginning Sunday evening and continuing pretty much through the week. At the moment* the best chance for measurable rain appears to be on Monday and Thursday. We'll see!

*Updated Saturday, February 17, at about 11:00 a.m.

Related posts: The Color of Rain, El Nino Drought, Sunset Snow Shower, Rainy Morning on Rocky Peak Road.

When I heard the news reports of snow in the Santa Monica Mountains along Kanan-Dume road near Malibu, I hoped to find a little snow or hail up at Sage Ranch Park on my afternoon run.

The isolated snow showers, hail and sleet were produced by convective cells that developed as a result of instability associated with a passing upper level low. Some of these cells also generated some lightning and thunder.

There was no snow on the ground at Sage Ranch, but the low angle rays of the setting sun did highlight a snow shower over the Rocky Peak Park area. In March of last year there was snow at Sage Ranch and Rocky Peak.

Related posts: Chumash Trail Snow, Oat Mountain Snow, San Fernando Valley from Rocky Peak.

The open space areas in which I run would normally be lush and green by this time of year, particularly when there is an El Niño. But in the past 231 days (including today) the official weather station for Los Angeles has recorded only 1.31 inches of rain, and the hills remain a dank sun bleached gray-brown.

Glistening in the morning sun, the wet trunk of a manzanita glows in iridescent shades of orange and red, pink and purple. Decorated with raindrops, the chaparral, and all within, breathe a deep sigh of relief. It has rained!

Prior to Saturday night's storm Los Angeles had recorded only 0.5 inch of rain in the last six months. Even by Southern California's arid standards, this is a meager amount.

Usually when there's an El Niño, wet Winter weather can be expected to develop in Southern California. But this year's El Niño has been a little quirky, developing later than usual, and becoming stronger than expected. So far this Autumn, the weather here has been somewhat quirky as well, with record setting high temperatures and below average rainfall. An El Niño, even a strong one, does not guarantee wet weather in our area. Whether or not the usual El Niño impacts eventually develop, we'll just have to see.

Another system is expected to produce some rain in Southern California this weekend, but in the last couple of days the computer weather models have been backing off the rainfall amounts. This morning's computer-based precipitation forecasts are nearly dry. Given the difficulty the models have had with this system, and the long fetch of moisture over the Pacific, maybe the forecast will change. For additional info about the El Niño and Southern California weather, check out my Southern California Weathernotes web site.

The manzanita photograph is from the Reseda to Trippet Ranch run described in my previous post, Musch Trail Mule Deer.

Mt. Baldy's North Backbone Trail is not a place to be in a thunderstorm. From start to finish it seems you are either on the crest of a ridge, or on or near the summit of a peak.

The photo above is of a spiral lightning scar on a Jeffrey Pine on the trail at the summit of peaklet marked 8555 on the USGS Mount San Antonio quad. The scar appears to be fresh, and could be from a strike that occurred this Summer. Perhaps the most remarkable thing, given the tree's prominent location, is that it hasn't been struck and scarred before.

The photographs are from Sunday's North Backbone Trail Revisited hike and run. A photograph of another Jeffrey pine that was struck by lightning can be found in the post Three Points - Mt. Waterman Loop.

Technorati Tags: lightning, Jeffrey Pine, lightning tree, North Backbone Trail, Mt. Baldy

Developing Cumulonimbus near Mt. Abel

Saturday, Pierce College in Woodland Hills set an all-time record high temperature of 119°F. This was probably the highest temperature ever recorded at an official weather station in Los Angeles County. To escape this oppressive heat, my intent was to get to the highest elevation possible, as early as possible, and stay as cool as possible. Little did I know the harrowing adventure that would result.

Snow highlights skeletal fingers of chaparral burned in the 2003 Simi Fire. From the Chumash Trail in the eastern Simi Valley. More info and a couple of additional photos can be found in my Coyote Oak Journal entry Chaparral Snow.